Diary of a Financier

Short Yen…

In Capital Markets on Thu 5 May 2011 at 09:01
  • JPY suddenly strengthening again.
  • USDJPY @ 79.70 this morning, entering historic support where G7 most recently intervened to weaken the Yen.
  • I’m trying to find the right vehicle to go long USDJPY, accumulate position at $79 support, buying down to $77.66 historical support.

…trying to prepare to short the Yen (JPY) by going long USDJPY.  I’m trying to identify the best vehicle for a retail (High Net Worth) investor.

We’re approaching levels where the G7 will be forced to intervene again.  Reminds me of days when central banks (i.e. Bank of England & EEM) were committed to FX trading bands.  Everytime a currency hit its outer limit, traders would pile on in anticipation of the intervention.  You only get a few stabs at it before central bankers decide to let it ride through its limit…

USDJPY daily extended- bull reversal building in indicators.

USDJPY daily- start buying at 79 support, buy down to 77.66 historical support.

 Longer-term charts still look bearish, as they should when USDJPY falls like a knife:

USDJPY weekly- indicators still firmly bearish long-term.

It will take a while for the monthly chart to hammer out a bottom solid enough to reverse into bullishness:

USDJPY monthly- again, long term very bearish, but here you can see the historical support.

–Romeo

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  1. […] 5/5- Long USDJPY (Short Yen) @ 79.70; now 80.92. […]

  2. […] May 5, I posted an entry about shorting the Yen (JPY).  It was a spot on call, which I played by outright shorting the Yen […]

  3. […] (as it has in the past) to weaken JPY in defense of its exporters/competitiveness.  I shorted JPY last time we touched that threshold, but this go-around looks more conducive to continuing the rally.  With […]

  4. […] May 5, I posted an entry about shorting the Yen (JPY). It was a spot on call, which I played by outright shorting the Yen […]

  5. […] (as it has in the past) to weaken JPY in defense of its exporters/competitiveness.  I shorted JPY last time we touched that threshold, but this go-around looks more conducive to continuing the rally.  With […]

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