Diary of a Financier

From the Trading Desk: Trade Reconciliation (Weeks of September 12 & 19)

In Trading Desk on Sun 25 Sep 2011 at 19:59

Not much else to report beyond the Eurocrisis. A historic buying opportunity will arrive in the future, but it won’t likely fall on this side of resolution (e.g. catalyst). I’m parsing singlenames to find a few hitting the bottom of their ranges–both technically and fundamentally. Valuations can certainly overshoot the downside, but there are equities out there that have already done so. First Solar (FSLR) was one such name this week, in which I’m sitting with ~13% paper gains after picking off a stake early in Friday’s session.

Nonetheless, my positioning is quite neutral from where I sit this weekend. My biggest fear is the market running away from me to the upside, because these technical undulations have been a crucial source of profits this year, and I’m not reading anything bullish quite yet. I hate being reactive, so although a rally on Monday won’t bother me, a 5%+ move throughout this week would… just a confession from my inner super-ego.

My Trade & Thought Reconciliation from the past two weeks:

2011.09.19

2011.09.12

  • Looking at history of $TIP performance during QEs, I’ll likely sell now before FOMC meeting. Plus, technicals are weak, esp ST. Sep. 16 at 11:34 AM
  • Just got to the office fm a morning meeting, Italian futures halted trading up 2.02pc?! What’s the deal? $ITALY$EWI$FTMIB_F. Sep. 16 at 10:28 AM
  • Bought $CSCO 16.45 $NOG 21.5 $BP 38.95 $CTL 34.8. Short-covering driving rally, not sure how long it can last, I’ll respect resistce levels. Sep. 15 at 9:55 AM
  • Really caught flat-footed by the magnitude of today’s rally. Sold $TLT up 2.02pc, $VXX up 5.05pc (my limit painted the tape w the latter). Sep. 14 at 5:23 PM
  • Epic opportunity to buy $HG_F in the coming wk. After a relatvly shallow pullback, Copper has entered the btm of trading range before ES_F. Sep. 14 at 9:28 AM
  • $SLV sold at 40 (up 2pc). I see a pullback per the daily fractal and I’m happy to step aside then repurchase at bottom of trading range. Sep. 13 at 1:11 PM
  • $DX_F monthly fractals fm 1992 v 2011 are exact analogue. 1992 was Black Wednesday… ERM I dissolution… Holy crap. Sep. 12 at 3:43 PM
  • $TIP bought at 116.20, exactly as I planned. Sep. 12 at 2:03 PM
  • $ES_F at 1174 looks to hit 1180 on 1-min chart, but 30-min says that’s the top of range. Time to put up or shut up. Sep. 14 at 8:28 AM

–Romeo

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