I’m not delving into the nostalgic or the “top ten” list thing. I just wanted to revisit my New Year’s Outlook from January 6, 2011. Upon that date, I covered 5 asset classes of the macro genre, and my calls on all 5 were correct:
1. S&P 500: After reaching resistance @ $135, SPY’s immediate reaction will hold the key to its 2011 performance.
2. Fixed Income: HYG to outperform LQD through 1q11, at which point the HYG chart will turn-over. High Yield spread widening could start a normalization in historically tight inter- & intra-asset class correlations, particularly as government intervention programs wane.
3. US Dollar: I expect longer-term bullish trends to unwind in an ugly 2011 if DXY fails short-term resistance @ 81.50.
4. Silver & Gold: While achieving its rally over a decade as opposed to Silver’s phenomenal few months, Gold has turned short-term bearish. I’m leaving these alone, as they’re in technical no-man’s-land, especially Silver. I do, however note that Gold has already turned short-term bearish.
√ Correct (although that wasn’t a very bold call, I later punctuated it with this call for the precious metals collapse via parabola)
5. Emerging Markets: Bonds (EMB) have already slipped, Equities (EEM) are finally following them down in what should be a sharp correction.
I’ll have something similarly saucy ready for 2012. For now, I’m going to soak-in a nice week off…