Diary of a Financier

From the Trading Desk: Trade Reconciliation (December 19-January 15)

In Trading Desk on Sun 15 Jan 2012 at 16:56

My, my.  It’s been too long since I reconciled my trades & thoughts.  Here’s a big load from the end of 2011 through the first weeks of 2012:

~~~~

  • $MBLX halted, $ADM terms Telles JV, MBLX annces restructuring. If this is net positive for MBLX, the SEC will bag someone for frontrunning. Jan. 12 at 4:19 PM
  • Don’t like weak breakdown in $TLT daily MFI, shows bear divergence and a lack of buyers to sppt these levels. This is its last shot at top. Jan. 12 at 9:06 AM
  • How did this get misconstrued? German 4q11 GDP was -0.25% q/q, although FY11 est 3.0%. That’s the European stalwart. Ew, bodes poorly. $EWG Jan. 11 at 7:56 PM
  • Baltic Dry Index collapsing again, -36% since December shelf. Co’s like $GNK price at spot $BDI w big correlatn, expect resurgant short int. Jan. 11 at 7:46 PM
  • Emphasis on $GLD one month window, cuz falling wedge resistance will hold 163ish. Technical indicators still bearish incl MFI neg trend. Jan. 10 at 9:50 AM
  • Good risk-adjusted return oppt’y in $SHY right now if u look at decoupling fm $TU_F: correlation fm .99 to .36 since September Dec. 30 at 9:41 AM
  • $ITALY halving rates in 6-mo, 2-yr auctions today not surprising w risk-free carry-trade created by 3-yr LTRO. Tmrw’s 3-yr auction is legit Dec. 28 at 10:33 AM
  • $WHR -8.4% today on news of $SHLD closing 3% of its stores. SHDL was 8% of WHR 2010 sales (per 10K), so .08x.03 means 0.25% loss to WHR revs Dec. 27 at 3:30 PM
  • $VXX again decoupling fm correlation: up 2.5pc v $SPY up 0.9pc v $VIX cash index down 1.89pc. VIX futures all higher but contango flattened. Dec. 23 at 4:27 PM
  • $FCX to rally up to its trendline resistce at 40 in a wedge pattern. All fractals are bullish so I expect a breakout. Dec. 22 at 2:18 PM
  • $TIP bought at 117.25. Strong fundmtl argument w negative real yields. Also a cup n handle to catapult above 120. Dec. 21 at 2:22 PM

–Romeo

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