Diary of a Financier

Fork in the Road Again: Another 2008 or 2010?

In Capital Markets on Mon 23 Jan 2012 at 08:49

Ever since my entry in October compared/contrasted SPX to its 2008 & 2010 fractals, I’ve successfully stuck to the 2008 analogue myself–although the continued 2012 rally has me on my heels. Calling for SPs to hit 1500 (+14.5%), Peter Brandt recently cited 2010’s SPX as a fitting, bullish analogue for today’s market.  Hence, I wanted to investigate.

Take a peek at some of the charts, starting with the daily:

SP Analogue (daily)- 2008 or 2010

I did say an overbought weekly fractal was the trigger to sell:

SP Analogue (weekly)- 2008 or 2010

But the monthly fractal has recovered with too much gusto:

SP Analogue (monthly)- 2008 or 2010

One last comparison of the analogues overlaid:

SP (daily)- 2008 v 11 v 10 overlay

My eye & the correlations give me reason to abandon the SPX 2008 vintage analogue for 2010’s.  Accordingly, I feel more bullish than I thought possible, given the shroud over Europe.

–Romeo

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  1. […] 2012′s resemblance of 2011, a surprisingly precise rebroadcast (at least anecdotally).  My favorite chart analogue remains the 2010 overlay, particularly when the equities/S&P 500 (SPX) are the […]

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