Diary of a Financier

Intraday Update: SPX 2011 Analogue, Buying Opportunity

In Capital Markets on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 11:23

The S&P 500 (SPX) -0.73% has reached its trendline support at ES/ 1390 & SPX 1395. I consider this a very short-term buying opportunity, as evidence by the bounce out of this support test in the 2011 analogue I keep citing:

SPY 2011 v 2012 analogue (daily)

SPY 2011 v 2012 analogue (weekly)

SPY 2011 v 2012 analogue (monthly)

I know this market lacks the motivation provided by QE2 last year. Down to net purchases of ~$1B in March, Operation Twist is not the catalytic enzyme that its predecessors were. Our analogue rallies are perception-driven though, so the irritant broad enough to reverse this trend must first divert investors’ eyes from the road higher. That detour lies nary a week hence still. (Private inventories and corporate earnings have been my nominees.)

–Romeo

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