Diary of a Financier

Chart Update: Copper Head & Shoulders Drawn to Neckline

In Capital Markets on Thu 31 May 2012 at 11:29

Wanted to followup on my April 4th Copper (HG/) comments:

Copper’s daily chart shows a short-term symmetrical triangle, which is ultimately eclipsed by a longer-term Head & Shoulders. HG closed around $3.79 tonight. With neckline support in the $3.40-3.20 range, the H&S pattern will ensure a bearish breakout of an otherwise ambiguous triangle. The weekly fractal confirms this bearish bias, and I find the monthly chart fragilely teetering on the brink of bearish reversal.

HG is trading down at $3.34 intraday, a 12% decline since that entry.  The charts unanimously confirm a magnetic draw to the $3.20-3.25 neckline support:

HG- H&S captive w support 3.20-25, weekly shows proximate bottoming process near those levels too.

I note that it’s not a classical Head & Shoulders, since the pattern is tilted.  That erodes the reliability of the pattern, and the sloping trendline support (neckline) makes the downside target dependant on the length of time it take to achieve such lows.

–Romeo

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  1. […] Copper has historically been an economic proxy. Copper (HG/) has bottomed at my $3.20-25 trendline support target. I’m buying the Copper ETF (JJC), because physical looks to reverse higher, up to ~$3.60 […]

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