Diary of a Financier

Top Newsstuffs (July 16-22)

In Bookshelf on Sun 22 Jul 2012 at 05:56

Terrific continuation in the rally this week, right up to Friday’s reversal down off my 1st resistance trendline.  I’m using this pullback to accumulate some Small Cap ETF (IWM) exposure, as it should catapult out of this lull proximately.

In the ongoing Eurocrisis, Spain reemerged at week-end.  One of  the Spanish regional governments, Valencia, had to request a bailout on Friday.  This is an example of the contingent liabilities that everyone should have expected to pile-up on the sovereign’s balance sheet.

Of course, on Thursday night the rampage of a gunman in an Aurora, CO movie theater overshadows all the news.

Here’s my Top Newstuffs from this week.  Never forget, but use it as a distraction from the tragedies in the world…


California Municipal Bankruptcies: Compton Next; Victorville, Montebello, Los Angeles & Oakland Enter Crosshairs | Mish Shedlock
So begins the “witchhunt” I referenced last week.

Rail Traffic Weekly: Carloads Rebound & Intermodal Continues Accelerating Higher | Association of American Railroads (AAR)
Carloads -2.6% and Intermodal +3.5 (y/y cumulative ytd volume); +1.7% and +6.8 respectively (vs. this week last year).
10 of 20 carload groups posted gains: Motor vehicles/parts +46.6%, Petroleum products +39.2 & Lumber/Wood +13.3; Iron/Steel scrap -25%, Metallic ores -14, Farm products -13.5.

The Forefathers of Technical Analysis: On Losing & Discipline | The Crosshairs Trader
Excerpts from Edwards, McGee, R.W. Schabacker & Charles Dow.

Debt to GDP in the Developed World | ZeroHedge
Debt/GDP ratios, ranked by country, categorized as government, corporate, household & total.

Municipal Bond Supply Will Surge in August | George Friedlander (Citigroup)
Since May, muni net issuance has been negative, with record amount of gross redemptions (maturities/calls) aiding a rally. Supply will be heavy from August-October, reverting to negative thereafter.

Presentation: US Housing Bull Theme | Bienville Capital
Thesis says that below-trend housing starts since crash have created 3.5mm units of “shadow demand” vs. only 1.61mm units of shadow inventory. This will start a home price resurgence until building returns to trend (1.5mm units/year). [This ignores the pre-crisis overconsumption & demographic shifts.]

14 Attributes of a Good Portfolio Manager | Leon Cooperman (Omega Advisors)

Four Real-World Investing Rules That Should Be Taught in Schools | Minyanville
1. What you know, everyone else probably knows too.
2. Timing is everything.
3. You may be suffering from Confirmation Bias.
4. In isolation, valuation ratios are useless.

After Creating Dollar Exclusion Zones in Asia & South America, China Cornering Africa Next | ZeroHedge
While the developed world repairs its debt crises, China has continued to corner emerging markets in Asia, South America & now Africa, which are no migrating toward a Chinese Yuan (CNY) standard.

Impossible Earnings Growth Expectations (SPX) | Goldman Sachs
“Consensus now expects year/year EPS growth to accelerate from 0% in 2Q, to 3% in 3Q to 17% in 4Q… P/E multiple expansion is unlikely in 2H.” Given uncertainties, GS says SPX lacks catalyst (QE3).

Notes from the Water Investment Conference | Citigroup
Citi estimates $500b needs to be invested in water infrastructure by 2040 (EPA says $300b-$1t). Water for hydraulic fracturing, ballasts & drinking are top investment opportunities.

Movie Trailer: “Ballplayer: Pelotero” | Bobby Valentine
This documentary chronicles the glory & corruption of MLB recruiting in the Dominican Republic. Red Sox manager Bobby V. began following two 16-year old baseball players for the film in 2009.




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