Video Interview: Jeff Gundlach at the Bloomberg Markets 50 | Tom Keene (Bloomberg)
Discussion includes: value investing (“I buy what’s cheap, what’s down, not something at generational highs”); secular trend reversals (10y yield has bottomed); investment management philosophy (“investors are traders that are underwater… accept losses when you’re wrong”); use of technical analysis.
Rail Traffic Weekly: Slight Aggregate Improvement | Association of American Railroads (AAR)
Carloads -1.3% and Intermodal +4.7 (cumulative ytd volume); -2.3 and +3.1 respectively (vs. this week last year).
11 of 20 carload groups posted gains: Petroleum products +64.2%, Farm products +61.4 & Stone/sand/gravel +15.2; Scrap metals -21.8%, Metallic ores -16.7 & Waste -15.1.
FOMC Decision: Fed Announces Unlimited QE3 | Business Insider
Fed will purchase $40B/month of MBS until they see a “substantial” decline in unemployment. Also, they extended ZIRP through 2015.
Gang of Eight Discusses Six-Month Punt for Fiscal Cliff | Firedoglake
Bipartisan group of senators tasked with deficit reduction is negotiating ~$55B debt “down payment” that’ll delay $1.2T (over 10 years) in automatic spending cuts for 6 months.
Virgin births discovered in wild copperhead snakes | BBC
Asexual reproduction has been observed in ~0.1% of vertebrates. In the phenomenon called “facultative parthenogenesis,” an egg grows without sperm fertilization, hence lacking male genetic material.
Pre FOMC, the Market Is Expecting $850 Billion NEW QE | Citigroup
Comparing Fed/ECB balance sheets at a 1.11x multiple and EURUSD @ 1.28, Citi says the market expects $850B in stimulus.
Demographics & the Secular Bull Market in Our Future | Tobias Levkovich (Citigroup)
Charting SPX vs. Americans 35-39 yrs old, Tobias says we’re at a secular trough. That age demographic is “peak savings,” which is synonymous with peak investing and a return of equity fund flows.
[Weird, because most strategists say consumption is bullish, not saving. Seems like data mining to me; Mr. Levkovich had a bullish thesis and decided to interpret his data as such.]
Presentation: “Mirror, Mirror on the Wall” (3q12) | Jeff Gundlach (DoubleLine)
Thinks rising household share of national debt will get worse; 10y Treasury yields +100bps into year-end; short US/long Chinese stocks.
Conference: Exxon & Chevron Discuss the Energy Industry | Paul Cheng
XOM & CVX say MLP formations and increased mid-continent refining capacity are unsustainable trends.
Getting Economics to Acknowledge Rentier Finance | naked capitalism
“Rentiers are those who benefit from control over assets that the economy needs to function, and who, therefore, grow disproportionately rich as the economy develops.” These used to be farms’ landlords; today they’re bankers & financiers. “The failure to distinguish between productive activity [contributions to growth] versus rent seeking distorts and overstates the accounting for national output.”
Database: US Bailout Tracker | ProPublica
Accounting for all the bailout funds, as well as taxpayers gains/losses for TARP, Financials/Banks, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Automakers, etc.
The Taliban Is Tired of War & Ready To Negotiate | The Daily Telegraph
Taliban prepared to renounce its ties to al-Qaeda, which it deeply regrets ever having. Prepared to surrender Afghanistan to NATO occupation through 2014 (a la Iraq).