Diary of a Financier

Intraday update: SPY playing shy into close

In Capital Markets on Mon 21 Oct 2013 at 15:43

All has gone according to plan here in the wake of the government shutdown.  SPY rallied right up to that dual trendline resistance at the intersection of its short term and long term rising wedge patterns >$174.

Heading into the close today (~$174.3), that’s exactly where SPY rests, having expressed some shyness in its first attempt to breach for a “throwover top” into YE, as I’ve expected.

Zooming-in to the 1-minute fractal, I see a multiday, complex H&S top with a bit of bear divergence having predicated a little pullback from today’s highs.  Both the 1min and 30min show the fight SPY has put-up, resisting that H&S’s bear pressure after only momentarily slipping below neckline support.  As a result, the intraday charts have morphed into a primary bull flag, which should breakout to new highs.  The 1min best displays the “flag” portion of this pattern, which takes the form of a falling wedge with trendline support ~$174:

SPY 1min/30min/daily

SPY 1min/30min/daily

That intraday bull flag should breakout over the recent $174.75 alltime high in the coming day(s)–a move that would predicate an important bull reversal out of [another] multiple bear divergence in the daily chart.

–Romeo

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  1. […] breaking-out to new highs yesterday, as expected, $SPY (-0.7% @ $174.2) has come back down to test resistance-cum-support from its dual rising […]

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