Diary of a Financier

Top Newsstuffs (November 10-16)

In Bookshelf on Sun 16 Nov 2014 at 06:10

Top reads from the week that was…

Macro

Rail traffic weekly (Week 45, 2014) | Association of American Railroads (AAR)
Sequential growth plummets under GDP’s ytd trend (+2%), although it’s comping off a high yoy base that started the YE13 rally:Rail traffic weekly 2014.11.13
Weekly traffic: -4.0pp @ +1.1% yoy
Growth rate: -0.1pp @ +4.4% ytd
Carload groups: 5 of 10 posted gains for the week yoy
    Minerals: +13.0%
    Petroleum: +12.4, succumbs to $CL_F price collapse
    Metals: +1.6, mean reverts after last week’s massive spike
    Coal: -0.8
    Forestry: -5.0
    Grain: -5.9, retraces the big comeback from wk 43’s collapse
    Motor vehicles/parts: -12.8
#Bearish #Latent indicator $XLE $USO $XLB $KOL $XME $XLI

Retail sales (October 2014) | US Government Census
Sales beat expectations, with slight decelerations in yoy data that are strong nonetheless, as supported by falling energy prices:
Headline: +4.1% yoy, +0.3 mom (beat +0.2e); prior month unrevised
Core (ex-autos): +3.3 yoy, +0.3 mom (beat +0.2e); prior month unrevised
#Bullish $XLY $XLP

Sentiment

Investor sentiment survey (2014.11.12) | American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)
Sentiment remains at exuberant extremes — on top of surprisingly countercyclical confidence in the face of the September/October’s double-dip internal correction, which has me worried that retail investors are getting too complacent:
Bull/Bear ratio: -49bps wow @ 3.00 (above 1.28 historical average & 1.8 extreme high)
Bullish: +5.2 @ 57.9% (over 39.0 avg & 45 extreme high)
Bearish: +4.3 @ 19.3 (under 30.5 avg & 25 extreme low)
Neutral: -9.5 @ 22.8 (under 30.5 avg)
Measures respondents’ expectation for equity performance over next 6 months (through 5/2015).
[Previously: Recent volatility increases retail’s willingness to buy, Retail allocations are average, Fund managers procyclically reduce risk exposures & Strategist sentiment remains a bullish signal]
#Bearish! #Contrarian

–Romeo

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