Diary of a Financier

Top Newsstuffs (March 9-15)

In Bookshelf on Sun 15 Mar 2015 at 06:46

Top reads from the week that was…

Macro

Rail traffic weekly (Week 9, 2015) | Association of American Railroads (AAR)
Another terrible report drags ytd growth into contration and shows little pent-up demand after last week’s collapse; record snowfall in the Northeast & California port closures are still denting the data, but next week really needs to show a snap-back as both issues are being resolved; next week starts a period of very difficult yoy comps, since pent-up demand started to manifest in 3/2014 data after 2014q1’s severe winter weather:Weekly rail traffic 2015 week 9
Weekly traffic: +7.5pp @ +0.8% yoy
Growth rate: +0.1pp @ unch ytd
Carload groups: 3 of 10 posted gains for the week yoy
    Grain: +11.5
    Farm: +10.1
    Chemicals: +2.7
    Motor vehicles/parts: -0.8
    Forestry: -2.5
    Metals: -2.6
    Petroleum: -4.1
    Coal: -6.5
#Bearish $IYT

Retail sales (February 2015) | US Government Census
An even worse report in a bad sequence with sales missing expectations and everything decelerating; despite alleged “consumer stimulus” from lower energy prices, record snowfall in the northeast & LA port closures dented the data, so March has to show a strong snapback due to pent-up demand:Retail sales (% change yoy, 2015.02)
Headline: -1.6pp @ +1.7% yoy, -0.6 mom (miss -0.3e); prior months unrevised
Core (ex-autos): -0.9pp @ +0.8 yoy, -0.1 mom (miss +0.5e); prior month revised down (-0.3pp @ -1.1% mom in January)
Effect: $SPX +1%, $AGG unch; on expectations that Fed will delay rate hikes
#Bearish #Bad is good #ZIRP

Sentiment

Investor sentiment survey (2015.03.11) | American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)
Sentiment keeps waning & dips below averages, with continued swelling in the neutral cohort even more indicative of healthy uncertainty:
Bull/Bear ratio: -46bps wow @ 1.24 (under 1.28 historical average & 1.8 extreme high)
Bullish: -8.2 @ 31.6% (under 39.0 avg & 45 extreme high)
Bearish: +2.1 @ 25.4% (under 30.5 avg, but above 25 extreme low)
Neutral: +6.2 @ 43.0% (over 30.5 avg)
Measures respondents’ expectation for equity performance over next 6 months (through 8/2015).
[Previously: Retail allocations are neutral, Fund manager sentiment extremely bullish US equities & Strategist sentiment remains a bullish signal]
#Bullish #Contrarian

–Romeo

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  1. […] seem to think — then the next few months should see spending surge.” [Previously: Retail sales continue to disappoint] #Bullish $XLY $XLP […]

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