Diary of a Financier

Top Newsstuffs (April 6-12)

In Bookshelf on Sun 12 Apr 2015 at 04:57

Top reads from the week that was…

Macro

Rail traffic weekly (Week 13, 2015) | Association of American Railroads (AAR)
2015’s weakness continues — even worse since we should be seeing a faster snap-back as evidence of pent-up demand:
Weekly traffic: -0.8pp @ -1.5% yoyRailtraffic 2015 week 13
Growth rate: -0.2pp @ +0.1% ytd
Carload groups: 2 of 10 posted gains for the week yoy
    Grain: +5.7
    Forestry: +2.3
    Farm: -1.1
    Motor vehicles/parts: -1.4
    Chemicals: -2.7
    Petroleum: -4.4
    Minerals: -5.2
    Coal: -11.7
    Metals: -6.2
2014 & 2015 both share the hindrance of record snowfalls (2014 being nationwide & 2015 limited to the Northeast), and 2015 added the dislocation of California port closures — all of which have now been resolved.
Given the secular decline of coal volumes (the largest category), traffic doesn’t seem able to stand on its own without the tailwind of energy boom
#Bearish $IYT

Sentiment

Investor sentiment survey (2015.04.08) | American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)
Sentiment stays below averages — a contrarian bullish signal; neutral respondents spike in a sign of healthy uncertainty:
Bull/Bear ratio: +8bps wow @ 1.19 (below both 1.28 historical average & 1.80 extreme high)
Bullish: -6.7pp @ 28.7% (under both 38.9 avg & 45 extreme high)
Bearish: -7.8 @ 24.1% (under both 30.4 avg & 25 extreme low)
Neutral: +14.5 @ 47.2% (over 30.7 avg)
Measures respondents’ expectation for equity performance over next 6 months (through 10/2015).
[Previously: Retail allocations are neutral & Strategist sentiment remains a bullish signal]
#Bullish #Contrarian

Interests

Alltime record net short positioning in Euro | RabobankEURUSD net speculative positions 2015.04.07
Speculative shorts (227k contracts) in $EURUSD has reached a record high, even despite the multiweek bounce from a 1.05 low up to 1.10.
[Previously: Long USD is the most crowded trade in the world]
$FXE

–Romeo

Advertisements
  1. […] risk that deferring a rate hike in June catalyzes a revaluing of the severely overbought $DXY and severely oversold […]

Comment

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s