Diary of a Financier

Intraday update: S&P 500 technicals

In Capital Markets on Wed 2 Sep 2015 at 13:40

Here’s an intraday update on $SPY…

The market remains volatile after having collapsed into its first correction since 2011.

SPY 1min15mindaily 2015.09.02

I expect a breakout rally from $SPY (currently @ 194.0) up through neckline resistance of its 1-min H&S bottom, filling-the-gap to a ST target @ 198 (+2.0%), where it will also meet trendline resistance of its 15-min bear pennant.

I’m waiting to see how we arrive at that target — specifically how the charts morph en route.  SPY weekly 2015.09.02The intermediate term base case today shows a daily LT H&S topping formation, with right shoulder resistance between 200-202, then neckline support down @ 182 (-6.2%).  If that R shoulder holds, I doubt the neckline can withstand the downward pressure, so I’d expect a classic breakdown to resistance-cum-support level @ 174 (-10.3%) — a read echoed by weekly bear divergences.




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