Diary of a Financier

Top Newsstuffs (November 23-29)

In Bookshelf on Sun 29 Nov 2015 at 06:39

Top reads from the week that was…

Macro

Manufacturers’ durable & capital goods (October 2015) | US Department of Commerce
Decent report with growth beating expectations across-the-board, even with small upward revisions to prior month data; recovery in capex orders indicates an end to the collapse in energy spending.
Although ytd growth rates slid deeper into the red, growth should resume next month, when yoy comps lap their high base (due to last year’s pent-up demand recovery):
Core durable goods (ex-transportation)Core durable goods & capex (% change yoy, 2015.10)
    Orders: -0.1pp @ -2.7% ytd, +0.5% mom (beat +0.3e)
    Shipments: -0.3pp @ -1.0% ytd, -0.3% mom
Core capex (capital goods, ex-defense & aircraft)
    Orders: +0.4pp@ -3.8% ytd, +1.3% mom
    Shipments: -0.1pp @ +0.1% ytd, -0.4% mom
Core inventory (ex-transportation)
    Inventories: -0.9pp @ -0.7% ytd, -0.2% mom
#Neutral #Deceleration

Consumer confidence survey (November 2015) | Conference Board
Big plunge to 15-month lows misses expectations, led lower by creeping pessimism about employment:Consumer confidence vs GDP 2015.11
Consumer confidence index: -8.7 mom @ 90.4 (misses 99.5e); 43rd percentile of historical data; prior month revised up (+1.5 @ 99.1)
[Previously: Retail sales are neutral & A new generation of Depression Babies?]
#Neutral #Noise? $XLY

Gross Domestic Product: Second estimate (2015q3) | Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
After the initial release had growth decelerating, this upward revision meets expectations, with growth maintaining its ~2% postcrisis trend velocity; above-trend Consumption is finally starting to net-out the energy crash’s drag (albeit still difficult to resolve w weak Retail Sales & Durable Goods data):
Real GDP (Q3): +0.6pp @ +2.1% qoq saar (meets +2.1e)Real GDP components 2015q3ii
    Inflation: Core -0.2 @ +1.3%; Headline +0.1 @ 1.3%
    Consumption (PCE): -0.2 @ +3.0%
    Investment: +5.3pp @ -0.3%; Residential +1.2pp @ 7.3%; Intellectual property -2.6 @ -0.8%
    Government spending: unch @ +1.7%; Federal -0.1 @ +0.1%; State & local unch @ +2.6%
    Exports: -1.0 @ +0.9%
    Imports: +0.3 @ +2.1%
    Inventories: +85 @ -59bps detraction fm GDP growth rate
Real GDP per capita (Q3): +2.2%; 9.8% below LT regression trend
Real GDP (Q2): unrevised @ +3.9% qoq saar
Real GDP (FY14): unch @ +2.4% yoy
Real GDP (FY13): unch @ +1.5% yoy
Real GDP (FY12): unch @ +2.2% yoy
#Bullish

–Romeo

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