Diary of a Financier

Top Newsstuffs (December 28 – January 3)

In Bookshelf on Sun 3 Jan 2016 at 06:29

Top reads from the week that was…


Consumer confidence survey (December 2015) | Conference Board
Nice recovery after last month’s [white noise] plunge to 15-month lows, with improvements in almost every sub-index:Consumer confidence vs GDP 2015.12
Consumer confidence index: +3.9 mom @ 96.5 (beats 93.5e); 53rd percentile of historical data; prior month revised up (+2.2 @ 92.6)
[Previously: Retail sales are neutral, Wage growth remains strong & A new generation of Depression Babies?]
#Bullish $XLY


2016 outlook: Ten key questions for the US economy | Bill McBride (Calculated Risk)
The keys to the US economy in 2016…
1. GDP growth: consensus +0.1pp yoy @ +2.6% (FY16e)
2. Employment: -50k yoy @ +210k monthly jobs added (FY15 saar)
3. Unemployment rate: Fed guidance -0.35pp @ 4.65% (midpoint, YE16e)
4. Inflation: Fed target unch @ +2.0% (FY16e)
5. Monetary policy: market expects 2 x 25bps rate hikes (FY16e)
6. Wage growth: Real income +2.0% (2015q4 avg)
7. Energy prices: Oil drawdown -67% @ $37 (YE15)
8. Housing: Housing starts, New home sales & Residential investment were strong in 2015
9. Home prices: sale prices unch @ +5% yoy (FY15 avg)
10. Housing inventory: expect a 2016 rebound; Inventories bottomed in 2013, then the recovery paused in 2015, which limits economic activity




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