Diary of a Financier

Top Newsstuffs (February 8-14)

In Bookshelf on Sun 14 Feb 2016 at 06:17

Top reads from the week that was…

Macro

Retail sales (January 2016) | US Government Census
Great report accelerates above trend & exceeds expectations, even with prior month’s upward revisions; data was especially encouraging when controlled for energy prices; hopefully this is the start of the US consumer’s second-coming…Retail sales (%change yoy & $gross, 2016.01)
Headline: +1.2pp @ +3.4% yoy, +0.2% mom (meets +0.2e); prior month revised up
    Autos: +0.9pp @ +7.2% yoy, +0.6% mom
Core (ex-autos): +1.3pp @ +2.5% yoy, +0.1% mom (meets +0.1e); prior month revised up
    Gas: +6.5pp @ -8.1% yoy, -3.1% mom
    ex-Gas: +4.5pp @ +4.5% yoy
[Previously: Consumption boom or depression babies?]
#Bullish

Credit

US household debt & credit report (2015q4) | Federal Reserve Bank of New York (NY Fed)
Credit expansion decelerated to meet trend GDP growth at year-end, but internals remain healthy…
Total consumer indebtedness: -50bps @ +2.5% yoy, +0.5% qoq @ $12.12T; only 4.4% below alltime record high ($12.68T in 2008q3)
Mortgages: +1.0% yoy, -0.1% qoq @ $8.25THousehold debt & credit- composition & delinquency status 2015q4
Non-housing debt: +7.4% yoy, +2.0% qoq @ $3.38T
    Auto loans: +11.4% yoy, +1.8% qoq @ $1.06T; record high
    Credit cards: +4.7% yoy, +2.7% qoq @ $0.73T; record high
    Student loans: +6.5% yoy, +2.4% qoq @ $1.23T; record high
– Delinquencies:
    Total: -2bps qoq @ 5.2% (vs 7.2% LT average); lowest since 2007q2
    90+ days: -10.5% yoy, +5.1% qoq
#Neutral #Private sector

Technicals

Commitment of Traders (COT): S&P 500 net speculative positioning (2016.02.12) | Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
Extreme short positioning continues procyclical plummet amidst market correction, wading deeper into short-covering range…SPX futures- net speculative positions (non-commercial longs less shorts) 2016.02.12
Net speculative positioning: -8k wow @ -234.3k contracts short; deeper into range from 10/2014’s low (-278.2k)
Measures difference between non-commercial longs & shorts in SPX futures (# contracts).
#Bullish! $ES_F $SP_F

Sentiment

Retail investor sentiment survey (2016.02.10) | American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)
Another plummet in sentiment somehow redoubles an extreme buy signal — a procyclical collapse amidst global market turmoil…
Bull/Bear ratio: -41bp wow @ 0.39 (below 1.00 extreme & 1.30 historical average)Retail investor sentiment survey- bulls & bears 2016.02.10
Bullish: -8.4pp @ 19.2% (below 30 extreme & 39 avg); back near January’s 11-year low
Bearish: +14.0pp @ 48.7% (above 30 avg); highest since 4/2013
Neutral: -4.6pp @ 32.1% (above 31 avg)
Measures respondents’ expectation for equity performance over next 6 months (through 6/2016).
[Previously: Retail allocations neutral, Institutional allocations neutral & Strategist sentiment still a buy signal]
#Bullish! #Contrarian

–Romeo

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