Diary of a Financier

Top Newsstuffs (June 20-26)

In Bookshelf, Politics on Sun 26 Jun 2016 at 05:41

Top reads from the week that was…

Macro

Manufacturers’ durable & capital goods (May 2016) | US Department of Commerce
Although this was another weak report continuing secular decline in manufacturing, the decline in ytd comps decelerated; the drawdown in inventories accelerates, showing strong internals that could provide a future tailwind…
Core durable goods (ex-transportation)Core durable goods & capex (% change yoy, 2016.05)
    Orders: +0.5pp @ -0.5% ytd, -0.3% mom (miss +0.1e)
    Shipments: +0.5pp @ -1.5% ytd, -0.1% mom
Core capex (capital goods, ex-defense & aircraft)
    Orders: +0.6pp @ -3.5% ytd, -0.7% mom (miss +0.4e)
    Shipments: +0.5pp @ -4.2% ytd, -0.5% mom (miss +0.3e)
Core inventory (ex-transportation)
    Inventories: +0.2pp @ -3.7% ytd, -0.2% mom
#Bearish #Contraction

Fundamentals

S&P 500 valuation update: Forward estimates increase | Fundamentalis
The most predictive fundamental factor, Forward earnings growth, remains stagnant for ntm, but it’s back-end loaded to 2016h2…
EPS (ntm): -0.01 wow @ $123.24
PE ratio (fw): unch wow @ 17.0x
PEG ratio: 17x; n/a given weak forward growth rate est
Earnings yield: +7bps wow @ 5.95%
EPS growth rate (ntm): -7bps wow @ +0.99%

#Neutral #Valuations $SPX $SPY

Sentiment

Retail investor sentiment survey (2016.06.23) | American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)
Sentiment slips even deeper into an extremely bullish signal just before the Brexit referendum; the neutral cohort remains excessive relative to its historical average…Retail investor sentiment survey- bulls, bears & neutrals 2016.06.23
Bull/Bear ratio: -5bp wow @ 0.63 (below 1.30 historical average & 1.00 – 1.80 extremes)
Bullish: -3.4pp @ 22.0% (below 39 avg & 30 – 45 extremes), up from a 11-year low
Bearish: -2.3pp @ 35.2% (between 30 avg & 25 – 40 extremes)
Neutral: +5.7pp @ 42.8% (above 31 avg)
Measures respondents’ expectation for equity performance over next 6 months (through 12/2016).
[Previously: Retail allocations are neutral, Institutional allocations send bullish signal & Strategist sentiment still a buy signal]
#Bullish! #Contrarian

Interests

The complete guide to the United Kingdom’s EU Referendum | The Big Picture
First, the results of the #Brexit polls…
Brexit results
Second, the economic impact of the #Leave victory, based upon economic forecasters’ scenario analysis (IMF, 2016-20)…
Brexit impact_economic forecasts
#Bearish $EWU $GBP #UK #Great Britain #England #Scotland #Ireland

–Romeo

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