Diary of a Financier

Top Newsstuffs (August 8-14)

In Bookshelf on Sun 14 Aug 2016 at 05:24

Top reads from the last week…


Retail sales (July 2016)
by US Government Census

Even though data missed expectations & growth decelerated, not only is the miss attributable to upward revisions to last month’s huge numbers, but yoy comps remain above trend (esp core-core), continuing the growth leadership from US consumers, for which conditions remain favorable and headline data continues to shed energy’s dead-weight on comps…Retail sales (%change yoy & $gross, 2016.07)
Core (ex-autos): -1.0pp @ +2.2% yoy, -0.3% mom (miss +0.1e); prior months revised lower
Core-core (ex-gas & autos): -0.5pp @ +3.4% yoy, +0.2% mom
Headline: -0.4pp @ +2.3% yoy, unch mom (miss +0.4e); prior months revised higher
Retail sales account for ~31% of US GDP (~45% of the Consumption component).
[Previously: PCE remains a bullish signal & Consumption boom or depression babies?]
#Bullish $XLY


US household debt & credit report (2016q2)
by The Federal Reserve (NY Fed)

Credit expansion continues its healthy ytd acceleration…
Total consumer indebtedness: +0.4pp @ +3.7% yoy, +0.3% qoq @ $12.29T; only 3.1% below alltime record high ($12.68T in 2008q3) and 10.2% above postcrisis trough (2013q2)
Mortgages: +3.0% yoy, -0.1% qoq @ $8.36THousehold debt & credit- composition & delinquency status 2016q2
Non-housing debt: +4.9% yoy, +0.4% qoq @ $2.34T
    Auto loans: +9.7% yoy, +3.0% qoq @ $1.10T; a record high
    Credit cards: +3.7% yoy, +2.4% qoq @ $0.73T
    Student loans: +5.8% yoy, -0.2% qoq @ $1.26T; down from a record high
    Total: -0.2pp qoq @ 4.8% (vs 7.2% LT average); lowest since 2007q2
    90+ days: -0.3pp qoq @ 3.3%; improvement across all categories
[See also: US foreclosures hit an alltime low; Previously: Commercial bank lending remains bullish & Loan officers are neutral on loan fundamentals]
#Bullish #Releveraging


Retail investor sentiment survey (2016.08.11)
by The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)

Sentiment remains a neutral signal with little sequential change…
Bull/Bear ratio: +6bp wow @ 1.17 (below 1.30 historical average, between 1.00 – 1.80 extremes)
Bullish: +1.5pp @ 31.3% (below 39 avg, but between 30 – 45 extremes)Retail investor sentiment survey- bulls & bears 2016.08.11
Bearish: unch @ 26.8% (below 30 avg & between 25 – 40 extremes)
Neutral: -1.5pp @ 42.0% (above 31 avg)
Measures respondents’ expectation for equity performance over next 6 months (through 2/2017).
[Previously: Institutional allocations send bullish signal & Retail allocations remain neutral]
#Neutral #Contrarian #TINA




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