Diary of a Financier

Top Newsstuffs (August 29 – September 4)

In Bookshelf on Sun 4 Sep 2016 at 05:15

Top reads from the last week…

Macro

Consumer confidence survey (August 2016)
by Conference Board

Sentiment spikes significantly, crushing expectations; all components were strong, suggesting a decent tailwind for coming months…Consumer confidence vs GDP 2016.08
Consumer confidence index: +4.4 mom @ 101.1 (beats 97.0e); an 11-month high; 63rd percentile of historical data
[Previously: Retail sales bullish & A new generation of Depression Babies?]
#Bullish! $XLY

Personal income & outlays (July 2016)
by The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Awesome report shows income & spending growth accelerate meaningfully, such that a major uptick in the savings rate didn’t eat-away at consumption; the headline report met expectations…Real DPI vs PCE (2016.07)
Disposable personal income (Real DPI): +0.5pp @ +2.7% yoy, +0.4% mom
Personal consumption expenditures (Real PCE): +0.2pp @ +3.0% yoy, +0.3% mom
Personal savings rate: +0.4pp @ +5.7%
[Previously: Retail sales remain bullish & A new generation of Depression Babies?]
#Bullish $XLY #Wages

Purchasing Managers Index (August 2016)
by Markit Economics

Global growth remains resilient, with nice velocity across Emerging Asia & Europe; although US results were alarmingly bad…
Global PMI (Composite): +0.1 @ 51.6 (miss 53.9 LT avg)global-pmi-composite-2016-08
Global PMI (Services): +0.1 @ 51.4 (miss 54.3 LT avg)
Global PMI (Manufacturing): -0.2 @ 50.8
US ISM (Composite): -3.9 @ 51.2; plunges below post-recession average (54.6) in biggest drop since 11/2008
– US ISM (Services): -4.1 @ 51.4 (miss 55.0e); a surprising crash across-the-board, but at least inventory levels have been pared; corresponds to +1.0% real GDP (annualized)us-ism-pmi-composite-2016-08
    New orders: -8.9 @ 51.4
    Production: -7.5 @ 51.8
    Inventories: -6.0 @ 48.0
    Export orders: -9.0 @ 46.5
US ISM (Manufacturing): -3.2 @ 49.4 (miss 52.2e); last month’s dip into contraction by both backlog & employment remains troubling, now joined by a crash in new orders; corresponds to +2.0% real GDP (annualized)
    New orders: -7.8 @ 49.1
    Production: -5.8 @ 49.6
    Backlog: -2.5 @ 45.5
    Inventories: -0.5 @ 49.0
    Employment: -1.1 @ 48.3
Eurozone (Composite): -0.2 @ 52.9 (miss 53.3e); corresponds to +0.3% real GDP (annualized)
Eurozone (Services): -0.1 @ 52.8 (miss 53.1e)
Eurozone (Manufacturing): -0.3 @ 51.7 (miss 51.8e); France remains the biggest drag @ 48.3
UK: +5.0 @ 50.3; big recovery after last month’s collapse to 41-month lows due to Brexit
Japan: +0.2 @ 49.5
China: official +0.5 @ 50.4 (beat 49.9e); unofficial -0.6 @ 50.0
Canada: -0.8 @ 51.1
India: +0.8 @ 52.6; a 13-month high
South Korea: -1.5 @ 48.6
Taiwan: +0.8 @ 51.8
ASEAN: +0.8 @ 50.3
Brazil: -0.3 @ 45.7; amidst political crisis from Rousseff impeachment
#Bullish

Sentiment

Retail investor sentiment survey (2016.08.25)
by The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)

Sentiment drops deeper into extremes, maintaining a bull signal, redoubled by the persistently outsized Neutral cohort; there’s no better manifestation of investors’ postcrisis PTSD…Retail investor sentiment survey- bulls & bears 2016.09.01
Bull/Bear ratio: -8bp wow @ 0.91 (below 1.30 historical average & 1.00 – 1.80 extremes)
Bullish: -0.8pp @ 28.6% (below 39 avg & 30 – 45 extremes); lowest since Brexit
Bearish: +1.9pp @ 31.5% (above 30 avg & between 25 – 40 extremes)
Neutral: -1.1pp @ 39.9% (above 31 avg)
Measures respondents’ expectation for equity performance over next 6 months (through 2/2017).
[Previously: Institutional sentiment remains a bullish signal & Net speculative futures positioning send bearish signals]
#Bullish #Contrarian

Asset allocation survey (August 2016)
by The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)

Allocations maintain neutral signals, but they’re nearing extremes indicative of a bear signal…
– Stocks: +2.5pp @ 66.6% (between 60% average & 70% extreme high)
Bonds: -0.6pp @ 17.4% (above 16% avg & 10% extreme low); off a 3-year high
Cash: -1.8pp @ 16.0% (between 24% avg & 15% extreme low)
#Neutral #Contrarian $SPY $AGG

–Romeo

Advertisements

Comment

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s