Top reads from across this Happy New Year week…
Consumer confidence survey (December 2016)
by Conference Board
Sentiment surged again to the highest level since 2003, crushing expectations even despite a massive upward revision to prior month data…
– Consumer confidence index: +4.3 mom @ 113.7 (beat 109e); a 13-year high; 84th percentile of historical data
[Previously: Income & consumption remain bullish signals, Retail sales remain bullish & A new generation of Depression Babies?]
Retail investor sentiment survey (2016.12.29)
by The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)
Sentiment remained a neutral signal, but it’s at the threshold of an extremely bearish signal…
– Bull/Bear ratio: +24bps wow @ 1.77 (above 1.30 historical average, but between 1.00 – 1.80 extremes)
– Bullish: +1.0pp @ 45.6% (over 39 avg & 30 – 45 extremes); the 3rd highest level ytd
– Bearish: -3.4pp @ 25.7% (below 30 avg, but between 25 – 40 extremes)
– Neutral: +2.5pp @ 28.7% (below 31 avg)
Measures respondents’ expectation for equity performance over next 6 months (through 6/2017).
[Previously: Institutional allocations remain a neutral signal]
Update: Stock market seasonality (S&P 500, 2016q1)
by Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) & MKM Partners
As we enter January, SPX is leaving behind its year-end stretch of seasonally strong performance and entering a period of choppy, average returns.
Mid-February welcomes a more favorable entry point, historically offering +3.25% TR through the end of April.
#Neutral $SPX $SPY