Diary of a Financier

Top Newsstuffs (April 17-23)

In Bookshelf on Sun 23 Apr 2017 at 05:04

Top reads from across the past week…

Macro (BULLISH)

Housing permits, starts & completions (March 2017)
by US Government Census

While everyone’s focused on the report missing expectations, the miss was due to a big upward revision to prior month data, and yoy comps remained really strong; the choppy trend continued for multifamily, which boom has likely ended (as expected)…
Monthly housing starts:  -1.3pp @ +9.2% yoy, -6.8% mom @ 1.215M saar (miss 1.262e); prior months revised significantly higher
Growth rate: +8.1% ytd
[Previously: The future is still so bright; See also: BAML says housing starts will accelerate & return to historical average in 2016/17 & Homebuilder confidence spikes to 11-year high]
#Bullish $XHB $ITB

Sentiment (BULLISH)

Retail investor sentiment survey (2017.04.20)
by The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)

Sentiment remains at extremes, hitting a new post-Election low and increasing the strength of the bullish signal that’s historically resulted in outperformance (SPX +6.3% average over next 6-months with 85% win percentage)…
Bull/Bear ratio: -12bps wow @ 0.66 (below both 1.30 historical average & between 1.00 – 1.80 extremes)
Bullish: -3.3pp @ 25.7% (below both 39 avg & 30 – 45 extremes)
Bearish: +1.3pp @ 38.7% (above 30 avg, but between 25 – 40 extremes)
Neutral: +1.9pp @ 35.6% (above 31 avg)
Measures respondents’ expectation for equity performance over next 6 months (through 10/2017).
[Previously: Retail allocations remain neutral & Quantifying the “wall of worry”]
#Bullish! #Contrarian

Credit (NEUTRAL)

Technicals (NEUTRAL)

Fundamentals (BULLISH)

Valuations (NEUTRAL)

–Romeo

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