Diary of a Financier

Top Newsstuffs (August 21-27)

In Bookshelf on Sun 27 Aug 2017 at 05:09

Top reads from across the past week…

Macro (BULLISH)

Manufacturers’ durable & capital goods (July 2017)
by US Department of Commerce

Despite core orders missing expectations and everything decelerating, this was a pretty good report; expect more decelerations down from these above-trend velocities, considering the tapering of easy yoy comps into year-end…Core Durable Goods- New orders 2017.07
– Core durable goods, new orders (ex-transportation): -1.2pp @ +5.6% yoy, +0.5% mom (beat +0.4e)
– Core capex, new orders (capital goods, ex-defense & aircraft): -2.1pp @ +3.5% yoy, +0.4% mom
– Core inventory (ex-transportation): +0.2pp @ +4.2% ytd, +0.3% mom
#Bullish $XLI

 

Credit (NEUTRAL)

 

Fundamentals (BULLISH)

 

Valuations (NEUTRAL)

 

Sentiment (BULLISH)

Retail investor sentiment survey (2017.08.24)
by The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)

Sentiment plunges back down into extremes, a contrarian bull signal, as the Bearish cohort rises up near the highest levels of the Trump Presidency
Bull/Bear ratio: -31bps wow @ 0.73 (below both 1.30 historical average and 1.00 – 1.80 extremes)
Bullish: -6.1pp @ 28.1% (below both 39 avg and 30 – 45 extremes)
Bearish: +5.5pp @ 38.3% (above 30 avg, between 25 – 40 extremes)
Neutral: +0.6pp @ 33.6% (above 31 avg, below 40 extreme)
Measures respondents’ expectation for equity performance over next 6 months (through 1/2018).
[Previously: Retail allocations remain neutral, Institutional allocations remain a bullish signal, Strategists’ consensus remains a neutral signal & Quantifying the “wall of worry”]
#Bullish #Contrarian

 

Technicals (NEUTRAL)

 

–Romeo

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