Diary of a Financier

Intraday update: SPY’s bottom is in; attention turns to upside target

In Capital Markets, Trading Desk on Mon 12 Feb 2018 at 10:23

The S&P has followed my gameplay to the letter.  After a ripping rally into Friday’s close and a gap-up upon today’s open, the chart is respecting its technical influences. Here’s the status update…


$SPY currently @ 262 (-8.6% drawdown from highs)

Base case: Reversal off quad-support @ 262; breakout above resistance @ 265; target @ 272

  1. 1-min shows the primary pattern I’m watching, an inverted complex H&S bottom that’s reaching its final R-shoulder support @ 262; the 15-min has morphed from a falling wedge into a diamond bottom, which also shows support @ 262 — a level that’s been a battleground since this correction began (even in the daily chart).
  2. Expect a reversal off of this robust 262 support, with an easy breakout above dual-resistance @ 265 (i.e. H&S bottom neckline and diamond bottom).
  3. From there, the coming days should rally higher toward my standing upside target @ 272 resistance (+3.8% from current).
  4. Second resistance @ 283 – 285 (+8.4% from current), where there’s a gap to fill-up.

SPY 1-min


Portfolio strategy

We’re tactically increasing beta this morning by trading various credit positions for equity — keeping things simple with buys in SPY and a bit of VTI.




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