Diary of a Financier

Archive for the ‘Capital Markets’ Category

Intraday update: SPY’s bottom is in; attention turns to upside target

In Capital Markets, Trading Desk on Mon 12 Feb 2018 at 10:23

The S&P has followed my gameplay to the letter.  After a ripping rally into Friday’s close and a gap-up upon today’s open, the chart is respecting its technical influences. Here’s the status update…

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Intraday update: Another bottom formation for SPY

In Capital Markets on Fri 9 Feb 2018 at 15:28

Here we go. The S&P chose the alternative path at the fork-in-the-road I discussed yesterday, which officially reached “correction” status for this quick drawdown.

While it was not my base-case expectation — but rather my bear-case — I discussed the potential for a daily H&S top breakdown to 255 support, which is exactly what happened. The trend repeatedly tested 255 throughout the day today, and it looks like that will hold into the close. So, without further ado, here’s the outlook…

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Intraday update: SPY moment of truth

In Capital Markets on Thu 8 Feb 2018 at 02:33

The S&P is taking another pass at that bottom I pointed-out earlier this week. As you can see below, the market will either breakout or breakdown from this juncture, although the overwhelming evidence suggests the bullish path…

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Intraday update: SPY bottom formation

In Capital Markets on Tue 6 Feb 2018 at 02:28

Right into it because we’re likely forming a short-term bottom in real time… Read the rest of this entry »

Intraday update: SPY support levels

In Capital Markets on Mon 5 Feb 2018 at 14:33

Been a while since one of these reversal updates was necessary.  Without futher ado… Read the rest of this entry »

SPY update: Bounce off support with target @ 201.8

In Capital Markets on Wed 24 Feb 2016 at 18:09

On the heels of the outlook we posted yesterday, SPY has traded in perfect accordance with the technicals discussed therein. Here’s an update as of today’s close… Read the rest of this entry »

SPY intraday update: ST & LT outlook

In Capital Markets on Tue 23 Feb 2016 at 12:26

Our last market update nailed the bottom in SPY (and the catalysts, so it seems). I wanted to update the outlook as the market’s rally from its correction lows continues to wear on… Read the rest of this entry »

Bull v. Bear: Checklist edition

In Capital Markets, Dissertation on Thu 21 Jan 2016 at 11:14

I wanted to crystallize my S&P 500 ($SPX) outlook in another edition of Bull vs. Bear, after I downgraded the market to NEUTRAL amidst the rally in December… Read the rest of this entry »

SPY update: Downgrading to NEUTRAL

In Capital Markets on Thu 3 Dec 2015 at 16:40

After witnessing two consecutive, material intraday selloffs, I wanted to crystallize my S&P 500 ($SPX) outlook… Read the rest of this entry »

SPY update: One more seasonal swoon before YE rally

In Capital Markets on Tue 10 Nov 2015 at 17:35

Just wanted to update what I’m seeing in the S&P 500 this week, as well as my outlook… Read the rest of this entry »