Diary of a Financier

Archive for the ‘Dissertation’ Category

Bull v. Bear: Checklist edition

In Capital Markets, Dissertation on Thu 21 Jan 2016 at 11:14

I wanted to crystallize my S&P 500 ($SPX) outlook in another edition of Bull vs. Bear, after I downgraded the market to NEUTRAL amidst the rally in December… Read the rest of this entry »

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Fear the crash? The complete guide to corrections, bull & bear markets

In Capital Markets, Dissertation on Wed 2 Apr 2014 at 22:50

“Markets crash all the time. You should, at minimum, expect stocks to fall at least 10% once a year, 20% once every few years, 30% or more once or twice a decade, and 50% or more once or twice during your lifetime. Those who don’t understand this will eventually learn it the hard way.”

–Morgan Housel (The Motley Fool)

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Bank loans reach Neverland

In Dissertation on Mon 24 Feb 2014 at 06:42

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Bull v. Bear

In Capital Markets, Dissertation, Economics on Thu 9 Jan 2014 at 12:56

I’ve spent considerable time synthesizing all of the information I’ve consumed over the past month(s) and rendering a timely, cogent market opinion.  Particularly interesting at the outset of a new year, the following signals-through-the-noise attempt to substantiate an objective narrative that can guide me through the equity market over the coming days, weeks, months, and quarters…

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Game change: “Optimal Control” & its effect on the market

In Capital Markets, Dissertation, Economics on Thu 14 Nov 2013 at 09:40

This past weekend, I highlighted Janet Yellen’s “Optimal Control,” an academic strategy for central bank/monetary policy management. I summarized it like this:

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A chat about housing with Bill McBride (Calculated Risk): Is the future so bright?

In Dissertation, Economics on Mon 30 Sep 2013 at 07:50

Throughout September, I’ve had a fantastic exchange with Bill McBride over at Calculated Risk.  Housing’s continued recovery was a central tenet to my bull thesis, and it seems like the notion has been adopted by much of the Street, as well as the Federal Reserve.  While I expect a pause in the housing rally here in the intermediate term (2014), its potential energy could (I’ve downgraded from “should”) help propel the US economy onward and upward over the longer term.

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Bull v. Bear

In Capital Markets, Dissertation, Economics on Wed 25 Sep 2013 at 11:16

I’ve spent considerable time this week synthesizing all of the information I’ve consumed over the past month(s) and rendering a timely, cogent market opinion.  The following, hard data attempt to substantiate an objective narrative that can guide me through the equity market over the coming days, weeks, months, and quarters…

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Unintended consequences of QE/ZIRP: Will a CapEx deficit lead to the next crisis?

In Dissertation, Economics on Mon 19 Aug 2013 at 07:30

I was wondering if some of QE/ZIRP’s unintended consequences will lead to longer term, structural issues, so I decided to dive into some research on the matter.

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“Tapering” reactions: What’s really happend so far & what will happen in the future

In Dissertation, Economics on Mon 17 Jun 2013 at 23:25

The Financial Times (FT) released a story today, claiming knowledge that the Fed will announce a reduction in the rate of their monthly QE purchases:

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The problem with MMT/MR (and all your other economic theories)…

In Dissertation, Economics on Fri 19 Apr 2013 at 12:47

I recently had to voice my opposition to the burgeoning Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) economic school and its offshoots, such as Monetary Realism (MR). I wanted to record my comments here, because these valuable debates often get buried for eternity in a long comment thread.

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