Diary of a Financier

Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

CNY FX crosses: Yuan rally resumes, posing a threat to global risk

In Capital Markets, Economics on Mon 9 Nov 2015 at 14:58

Wanted to update my outlook for Chinese Renminbi’s ($CNY) major FX crosses, because the Yuan itself has rallied hard over the last week… Read the rest of this entry »

Tightening has already occurred

In Economics on Mon 12 Oct 2015 at 14:36

If the strengthened USD, the rally in interest rates, and the underperformance of dividend income stocks aren’t enough evidence, LIBOR is sending a clear signal that a market-based tightening has already occurred. Read the rest of this entry »

What is Janet Yellen’s Fed thinking?

In Economics on Thu 24 Sep 2015 at 15:29

In addition to global economic entanglement (read: China I & II), Janet Yellen and the Fed’s decision to defer its first rate hike in 9-years must have considered market-derived signals that are troubling for the US growth outlook.  What’s more is that these indicators have reached levels that prompted Fed intervention (i.e. QEs & OT) in prior years… Read the rest of this entry »

CNY FX crosses: The most important charts in the world right now

In Capital Markets, Economics on Thu 24 Sep 2015 at 12:03

Although Volkswagen is desecrating the German economy — spreading to greater Europe & even the US — the most important charts in the universe today are currencies.  Specifically, Chinese Yuan ($CNY) crosses against the Euro ($EUR) and Japanese Yen ($JPY). Read the rest of this entry »

On the SPX correction & China

In Capital Markets, Economics on Wed 2 Sep 2015 at 17:40

Everyone trivializing the Fed’s (expected) upcoming rate hike needs to stop being so ideological, stubborn, obtuse, etc… Read the rest of this entry »

Bull v. Bear: The economic deceleration is real this time

In Economics on Fri 17 Apr 2015 at 14:09

A combination of California port closures and record snowfalls in the Northeast have conspired to drag on 2015q1 economic data.  Recall that both matters were formidable headwinds a year ago as well, with 2014q1 GDP @ -2.1% saar.

A couple notes in regards to that comparison, which is an important gauge of 2015’s economic health:

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ECB sovereign QE conditionals

In Capital Markets, Economics on Fri 16 Jan 2015 at 16:30

Mark my words… Read the rest of this entry »

The most important post on Europe you’ll read this year

In Capital Markets, Economics on Thu 9 Oct 2014 at 17:24

There’s a lot of bad news being thrown at the market right now.  Most of it is of the garden variety, those constant fixtures in the everpresent wall-of-worry.  Euroskeptics are perhaps the loudest of the lot right now.  This ilk is framing a much different narrative for Europe than objectively exists, but they’ve managed to talk-down European markets — not to mention the rest of the world.  ‘Uncertainty is the mother of opportunity’ (or something like that), and there’s a particularly attractive entry point in European equities right now.  We are buying Europe ($HEDJ)…

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Top Newsstuffs (July 28 – August 3)

In Bookshelf, Economics on Sun 3 Aug 2014 at 06:21

Lost in the dunes of our National Seashore…

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Q1 GDP & financial crisis recoveries in context

In Economics, Idiosyncrasy on Mon 30 Jun 2014 at 10:06

I just couldn’t resist chiming-in this weekend after I saw Yves Smith (Naked Capitalism) highlight some remarks by UMass Amherst’s Professor Robert Pollin.  Mr. Pollin explains the weak 2014q1 GDP growth rate (-2.9%) as a microcosm of the entire postcrisis recovery:

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