Diary of a Financier

Posts Tagged ‘Bearish’

SPY update: One more seasonal swoon before YE rally

In Capital Markets on Tue 10 Nov 2015 at 17:35

Just wanted to update what I’m seeing in the S&P 500 this week, as well as my outlook… Read the rest of this entry »


Intraday update: Technical rally to fade

In Capital Markets on Thu 8 Oct 2015 at 11:56

SPY (199.3 currently) has followed the pattern I expected per my last update yesterday.  After slipping this morning, SPY’s rallied back into the early afternoon.  This is a ST undulation in accordance with ST technical patterns, and it will fade, yielding to the primary, bearish patterns en force… Read the rest of this entry »

Intraday update: SPY at resistance, to retest correction lows

In Capital Markets on Wed 7 Oct 2015 at 11:11

My last update nailed SPY’s intraday reversal, its subsequent (1st) support, and the ensuing rally.  Now, SPY has reached my “target 1st resistance ~199.5 (+4.2% fm current), which is the 15min LT H&S top’s R shoulder,” and therefore I expect a reversal lower starting right nowRead the rest of this entry »

Intraday update: S&P 500 technicals

In Capital Markets on Wed 2 Sep 2015 at 13:40

Here’s an intraday update on $SPY… Read the rest of this entry »

Bull v. Bear

In Capital Markets on Thu 15 May 2014 at 10:51

I’ve spent considerable time synthesizing all of the information I’ve consumed since my last “Bull v. Bear” entry, and enough has changed for me to render a new, timely, cogent market opinion.  The following signals-through-the-noise attempt to substantiate an objective, data-driven narrative that can guide me through the equity market over the coming days, weeks, months, and quarter…

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SPY’s undulations render high conviction setup

In Capital Markets on Fri 31 Jan 2014 at 13:54

The market has meandered as expected, per my last discussion of its potential (and likely) paths.  Now it looks like $SPY ($178.4) has made a short term bottom, which will propel a multiday bounce to complete the bearish Head & Shoulders top’s right shoulder formation…

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Update: SPY’s potential paths

In Capital Markets on Wed 29 Jan 2014 at 00:39

The S&P 500 ($SPX) enjoyed a faint recovery today, continuing its bounce off multiday support @ $177–a low it sniffed intraday yesterday.  As the picture continues to develop, I wanted to consider the potential paths the market may pursue hereafter.  The charts are rather resolute in their bearishness, but I’m looking for my next checkpoints and triggers to help manage the portfolio.

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SPY’s bearish evolution begins correction

In Capital Markets on Thu 23 Jan 2014 at 18:00

Today saw the expected followthrough in the S&P 500’s bearish setup, with SPY hitting as low as -1.35% intraday before recovering to close -82bps.  This brings us closer to the market’s first correction in over 400 days.

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SPY update: Breakdown fulfills bearish setup

In Capital Markets on Mon 13 Jan 2014 at 18:39

As I warned in my note last week, SPY rallied up to its 15min bull flagpole resistance ~$184.5, where it failed to breach and therefore affirmed the complex fulcrum top. Read the rest of this entry »

Top Newsstuffs (January 6-12)

In Bookshelf on Sun 12 Jan 2014 at 07:08

P-A-T-S, Pats, Pats, Pats…

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