Diary of a Financier

Squawk Box

Trade & Thought Reconciliation*


Microsoft is slowly taking over my iPhone: calendar, email, cloud, Office apps
#iOS #SoftwareIsEatingTheWorld
2015.02.04 @ 21:54

ECB stops exchngng Greek bonds for emergncy cash, so Greece won’t comply w bailout terms:

$EUR -1.3%@1.134
2015.02.04 @ 17:15

$SPY 205 bullish, near brkout: 15min LT bull pennt at trndln restce w 3x bull divgce; daily 2x bull reversl; weekly 2x bear divgce.
2015.02.04 @ 15:30

$MRVL 16.1 breakout: 15min bull flag >$16 restce; daily LT H&S near $16.6 2nd nkline restce; wkly LT symm wedge brkout w 1x bull revrsl.
2015.02.04 @ 15:25


$TWTR bot @ $36.5, half postn: 1min fulcrum btm brkout w 3x bull divgce; daily LT fulcrum btm @ nkline sppt w ST 4x bull divgce.
2015.01.29 @ 16:29

$FEYE bot @ $32.2: 15min bear trap under consolidn channl; daily LT symm wedge brkout w 4x bull divgce.
2015.01.29 @ 16:26

$YHOO after $BABA: Marissa Mayer’s “MAVENS” strategy (Mobile/Video/Native/Social advertising) begs for $TWTR acquistn
2015.01.28 @ 22:54

Deutsche Bank: “Twitter is like Facebook 2-3 yrs ago… one of the best mean-reversion ideas of 2015”

2015.01.25 @ 22:57

RT @conorsen: Loans and leases at commercial banks now growing north of 8% YoY:
#Bullish #Credit
2015.01.23 @ 17:49

$RDC (22.3) fleet status report: no new jackup rig contracts w 14 rolling-off in 2015 & 2 idle

2015.01.22 @ 10:17

ECB announces €60B/mo sovereign QE thru 2016YE (beats €50Be):
$EURUSD -125bps
$HEDJ +50bps
2015.01.22 @ 10:07

WSJ: ECB to announce €50B/mo sovereign QE; >€500Be
$FEZ +50bps
$EURUSD +60bps
2015.01.21 @ 10:28

…also, considr relative sprds (as opposed to absolute), given #ZIRP.
2s10s ycharts.com/indicators/210…
10s30s ycharts.com/indicators/30_…
2015.01.17 @ 00:13

Treasury yield curve is steeper than you think…
2s10s @ 133bps vs 96 avg;
10s30s @ 63bps vs 31 avg.
2015.01.17 @ 00:13

On the future of a decentralized internet (after the centralized, before the distributed): tcrn.ch/1BM71HN
2015,01,10 @ 21:59

RT @balajis: The new @genius lets you put genius.com in front of any URL to annotate it: genius.com/www.federalres…
2015.01.07 @ 17:45

African median ages by country @conradhackett: “For comparison, the median age in the U.S. is 37”
2015.01.06 @ 00:30


$FEYE 33.3 watch to buy brkout or brkdwn: 15min fulcrum top w $33.9 restce & 1x bull revrsl; dly LT 4x bull revrsl & symm wedge brkout 12/19
2014.12.29 @ 12:47

RT @pmarca: The best (?) counterargument against Larry Summers’ secular stagnation thesis by @DavidBeckworth: washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog…
2014.12.27 @ 5:43

$GOOGL 515.8 bearish: daily LT descending triangle breakdown < $520 sppt.
2014.12.15 @ 16:21

$SLV 16.3 bullish: daily LT falling wedge brkout w 2x ST bull divgce.
2014.12.12 @ 11:49

$IWM 117.4 watch: daily LT bull flag @ trendline restce w $120 flagpole restce, but ST H&S top formng R shldr ~$118 w $115 nkline sppt.
2012.12.03 @ 11:29


$EWZ max pessimism? Nomura: “The Brazilian economy is in a perilous state… unraveling” seekingalpha.com/news/2137545-n…
$PBR #Deficits #Inflation
2014.11.19 @ 15:30

$AMZN added @ $326, dbls positn: 15min bull pennt brking out w $332 flagpole restce.

2014.11.19 @ 13:03

$AMZN 329 bullish: dly LT bull pennt @ trndlne resistc w $405 flagple restc & 2x bull divgc; mnthly LT 2x bear divgc.
2014.11.18 @ 10:13

RT @ReformedBroker: “No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it’s not the same river and he’s not the same man.”
— Heraclitus
2014.11.15 @ 15:07

$GXC Goldman: “Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect stock market link a game-changer” m.seekingalpha.com/news/2111375-g…
$FXI $CNY #China #Liberalization
2014.11.10 @ 9:28

$RDC 23.6 bullish: “Q3 earnings beat & FY15 guidance meet is good news for offshore drillers” seekingalpha.com/news/2096705-r…
2014.11.05 @ 16:17

$SPY 200.8 watch: daily diamond top nearing peak ~$204 w 2x MFI bear divergence within LT bull channel.
2014.11.04 @ 13:49

$OIH 44.3 bearish: daily bear pennant w $41 flagpole sppt; a lot of bear flags awaiting brkdwn in singlenames too… $GDP a harbinger?
2014.11.03 @ 16:14

$SJNK 29.8 bullish: daily H&S btm @ Rshldr sppt w $30 nkline restce & 2x MFI bull divgce.
2014.11.03 @ 16:11


$IWM bot @ $104, double position.

2014.10.15 @ 16:52

$IWM 105 watch to buy: 15min H&S btm off R shldr w $104 nkline sppt & 3x bull divgce; daily LT bull flag @ sppt.

2014.10.15 @ 11:26

 $IWM 106.5 watch: daily LT bull flag near trendline sppt < $106; weekly 4x bear divgce.
2014.10.09 @ 14:55

$SPY 193.0 & $IWV 106.6 watch: daily LT H&S tops near nkline before bounce to R shldr restce.
2014.10.09 @ 14:49

Energy bubble?
2014.10.09 @ 11:46

Wilbur Ross buying “idiosyncratically distressed” $CL_F, $NG_F & rail cos, despite $XLE bear mkt: reuters.com/article/2014/1…
2014.10.08 @ 10:00

$SPY 195.7 & $IWV 116.0 bullish: 15min H&S bottoms @ R shldr sppt; daily support too.
2014.10.06 @ 12:51


$RDC added @ $25.85; dbl to full position.
#Trades #Fundamentals #Quant
2014.09.26 @ 15:47

$YHOO activists investor Starboard:
1. Explore strategic #M&A w $AOL ($1B synergies)
2. SOTP = $48-56 (+23 – 45%)
2014.09.26 @ 14:00

#MetCoal -$1 qoq @ $119 (6yr low, -64% since 2011)
#China imports -39% yoy
#IronOre #MaxPessimism
2014.09.25 @ 17:17

Wells Fargo: Still too early to buy offshore drillers
2014.09.24 @ 12:55

$CLS sold @ 10.8 (-11% TR): will revisit.
#Trades #QuantScreen #CoreValue
2014.09.17 @ 16:05

$NCR bot @ $34.4: daily LT bull flag brkout w $41.5 flagpole restce; weekly 2x bull divgce.
2014.09.17 @ 16:01

$GOOGL 588 bullish: daily LT bull pennant @ trendline sppt w $615 flagpole restce.
2014.09.16 @ 16:03

$IWM 114.3 bearish ST, bullish LT: 1min dbl btm, but 15min H&S brkdwn; daily LT bull pennt w trndline sppt > $111.
2014.09.14 @ 11:14

$IWM 115.5 watch: 15min LT H&S top w $114.7 nkline sppt & 1x bull divgc.
2014.09.12 @ 11:49

$SPY 199.6 watch: 15min LT H&S top w $198.8 nkline sppt & 1x bull divgc, ST ascendng wedge w $200.1 restc (R shldr).
2014.09.12 @ 11:46

$VLCCF 12.85, watch: daily ST H&S top nearing Rshldr ~$14 w $11 nkline & 2x bear divgce, LT C&H w $15.7 rim.
2014.09.11 @ 15:45

Goldman: “End of the Iron Age,” #IronOre @ $82 (5y low), $80/2015, $79/’16, $78/’17 pulse.me/s/2FCSEk
2014.09.10 @ 22:29

Seadrill says offshore drilling market “bad” this year, worse in 2015 pulse.me/s/2GxEbY
2014.09.10 @ 20:55

$SPY $IWV $IWM, watch: 15min H&S breakdowns at support-cum-resistance now.
2014.09.10 @ 12:53

$VC Bloomberg: considering splitting biz in 2 (electronics & climate controls); could add 25% to shs.
2014.09.10 @ 11:25

$TNX 2.50, bullish: daily falling wedge @ trendline restce w brkout target @ 2.8 & 2x bull divgc.
2014.09.09 @ 17:34

Breakdowns, awaiting confirmation (sppt-cum-restce):
$SPY twitter.com/RomeoFayette/s…
$IWV twitter.com/RomeoFayette/s…
$IWM twitter.com/RomeoFayette/s…
2014.09.09 @ 15:53

$IWM 115.8, watch: 15min H&S top near nkline sppt @ $115.5; daily LT bull pennant within bull channel.
2014.09.09 @ 12:30

$IWV 119.3, watch: 15min H&S top near nkline sppt @ $119.1; daily bull channel.
2014.09.09 @ 12:21

$SPY 200, watch: 15min complex H&S top shld form R shldr $200.5-201.0 w $199.85 nkline sppt; daily bull channel @ restce.
2014.09.09 @ 12:16

$NCR 34.25 watch: daily LT bull flag @ trendline restce w $41.5 flagpole restce, ST tilted H&S btm w 2x bull divgce; weekly 2x bull divgce.
2014.09.02 @ 14:24


$CRTO +20% on rumored takeover by Publicis $PUBGY: m.seekingalpha.com/news/1960185-c…
2014.08.29 @ 11:58

“Programmatic advertising report: Real Time Bidding (#RTB) is taking-over the digital ad market”
2014.08.28 @ 11:40

#Allocation 64.5/30/5.5 eq/fi/csh vs 60/40 benchmk; Beta 0.78 vs 0.76; Sigma 1.23 vs 0.56.
#PM $$
2014.08.22 @ 11:00

$YHOO added @ $37.8: daily ST consolidation chnnl brkout, LT bull flag brkout w $42 flagpole restce.
2014.08.19 @ 16:00

$FSLR 70.5 bullish: daily bull pennt @ trndlne restce w $75 flagpole restce; wkly LT fallng wedge brkout 10/2013.
2014.08.19 @ 13:06

$BWP bot @ 19.88: 15min fulcrum top @ $20 nkline restce, breakout to fill gap >$24.
#Trades #Fundamentals
2014.08.19 @ 12:16

#PrivateEquity having big 2014q3: $50B raised in Q3; $440B capital reserves (uncalled dry pwdr). @barronsonline
2014.08.18 @ 10:51

$CG $CRTO $RDC bot more.
2014.08.14 @ 16:07

$IWV bot more @ $116.54.
2014.08.14 @ 16:05

$CREE 48.9, bullish into earnings: dly ST falling wedge @ restce, LT H&S btm @ Rshldr; wkly LT symm wdge.
2014.08.12 @ 15:11

$SPY 193.4, watch: 15min ST bull flag fail wld morph in2 LT H&S btm w 194.5 nklne & 191.5 Rshldr sppt, 3x bull divgc
2014.08.12 @ 11:50

“No matter what people tell you, words and ideas can change the world.”
— Robin Williams
2014.08.12 @ 0:58

$SPY (194.25) $IWV (115.9) bullish: 1min bull pennants to fill-up 7/31 gaps.
32014.08.11 @ 13:20

#Allocation 60/30/10 eq/fi/cash (60/40 benchmk);
Beta 0.73 vs 0.76;
Sigma 1.05 vs 0.81;
$NDZ #M&A closed
#PM $$
2014.08.08 @ 16:29

$IWV closed >115, bullish: brkout confrms btm to 4% drwdwn; wrst case now is 15min H&S btm w $115.7 nkline & 114 Rshldr; best fill gap >117.
2014.08.08 @ 16:22

$IWV 114.95 watch: 15min falling wedge breakout > 114.5, restce @ $115 needs to be broken for confirmation of bottom.
2014.08.08 @ 13:49

…$TNX contd: wkly weak C&H w 3.05 rim & 2x bear divgce.
2014.08.07 @ 14:41

$TNX (2.43) watch: daily consolidatn channel @ sppt w 2x bull reversl after LT 3x bear divgc…
2014.08.07 @ 14:38

$SPY 192.5 watch: 15min diamond btm brkout w 2x bull divgc; daily bounce off $190 sppt after brkdwn fm risng wedge w 3x bear divgc.
2014.08.07 @ 10:00

$IWV 114.7 watch: 15min H&S btm @ Rshldr w $114 nklne & 2x bull divgc; daly LT bull chnl @ sppt after brkdwn fm risng wedg w $111.6 sppt tgt
2014.08.07 @ 9:53

$BAC 15.3, watch: daily diamond top brkdwn w 3x bear divgce; rescued by dividend incrse anncmt?
2014.08.06 @ 13:01

$SPY 193 bearish: 15min bear flag w $191.5 flagpole sppt; dly brkdwn fm ST risng wedge w 1st sppt ~$190 LT bull chnl.
2014.08.05 @ 12:09


$RDC bot @ $31.
#Trades #Fundamentals
2014.07.29 @ 16:03

$IWM 113.3 watch: 15min ST H&S btm @ Rshldr w $114 nkline restce & gap >114.6; LT bear flag w $112.5 flagpole sppt.
2014.07.29 @ 11:56

$VLCCF 12, LT bullish: daily LT C&H w $15.7 rim & bear revrsl, nering sppt @ $11.6 (38.2% Fib); wkly LT fallng wedge.
2014.07.25 @ 11:48

$GM 34.7, bullish: daily H&S btm @ R shoulder sppt w $38 nkline & 3x bull divgce; wkly C&H w $42 rim.
2014.07.25 @ 9:54

$YHOO gets a lift from M&A speculation: m.seekingalpha.com/news/1862885-y…
$BABA $SFTBF #Fundamentals #IPO
2014.07.24 @ 00:17

China’s crude steel production hits record highs: finance.yahoo.com/news/why-china…
#IronOre #DryBulkShippers
2014.07.23 @ 17:33

$HAL strong Q2 results & signal North America demand recovery.
2014.07.22 @ 16:30

…$SPY contd: watch for bull reversal in daily ST 3x bear divgce.
2014.07.22 @ 9:57

$SPY (198.2) bullish: 15min brkout fm symm wedge morphs primary pattrn into ascending triangle w $198.3 restce.
2014.07.22 @ 9:54

…$IWM contd: 1/2013 brkout fm wkly LT ascending triangle has been completed (classic breakout = 50% of hypotenuse).
2014.07.21 @ 17:26

$IWM (113.8) still bearish: daily H&S top w nkline sppt @ 107.3; wkly 4x bear divgc.
2014.07.21 @ 17:23

$SPY (197.3) watch: 15min consolidn chanl in lger symm wedge; dly ST bull chnnl @ sppt w 3x bear divgce; wkly ST rising wedge w bull revrsl.
2014.07.21 @ 17:15

$IWV (117.4) watch: 15min LT H&S top w $116.8 nklne sppt; dly LT bull chanl & ST risng wedge w MFI bull revrsl fading.
2014.07.21 @ 17:10

$GNC ($35.5) bullish: daily ST H&S btm off Rshldr sppt w nklin >$37 & 3x MFI bull divgc; LT 3x bear divgc near revrsl
2014.07.15 @ 16:41

Buys add to #Automotive basket ($VLKAY):
$GM @ $37.8
$MGA @ $110.8
$VC @ 98.15
#Trades #QuantScreen
2014.07.14 @ 14:05

$BMA sold @ $44.47 (+101% TR).
#Trades #QuantScreen
2014.07.11 @ 10:24

$IWM (114.5) bearish: daily H&S falling off R shoulder to nkline sppt @ 107.3 (-6.3%); weekly 4x bear divgc.
2014.07.10 @ 10:07 

$SPY (195.3) watch: 15min LT bull chnl brkdwn w 2x bear divgc; dly risng wdge fallng to sppt >$194 w 2x bear divgc.
2014.07.10 @ 9:53

$KBE (33.6) & $KRE (40.7) bearish: daily H&S tops retest R shldr restce; 15min dbl tops w 2x bear divgce.
2014.07.07 @ 17:02

#Allocation 63/30/7 eq/fi/cash (60/40 benchmk);
Beta 0.77 vs 0.76;
Sigma 1.11 vs 0.75.
#PM $$
2014.07.03 @ 13:06

$CLS added @ $12.8, now full position: 15min bull flag morphed into C&H w $13 rim.
2014.07.03 @ 13:00

$LGF (29.75) bullish: daily LT bull flag at trendline restce w $38 flagpole & 2x bull divrgce marking btm @ 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
2014.07.02 @ 11:41

$YHOO bot @ $35.35, half position: daily LT bull flag w 2x MFI bull divgce.
#Trades $BABA
2014.07.01 @ 16:40


$CRTO ($33.7) bullish: daily LT tltd H&S btm near R shldr w nkline restc <$37 & 4x bull divgce; daily ST bull chanl.
2014.06.30 @ 12:46

$GDX ($26) bullish: 15min bull flag; daily LT tilted H&S btm at nkline restce to fill gap >$32 w 3x bull divgce.
2014.06.27 @ 9:54

$CL_F ($105.2) bullish: wkly ascending triangle w $110.9 restce after brkout fm LT symm wedge 7/2013.
2014.06.26 @ 12:00

$AMZN ($327) watch for bull revrsl: 15min bull flag w flagpole restce ~$342 restce-cum-sppt fm daily H&S top brkdwn.
2014.06.25 @ 17:56

$MOS bot @ $50.1: dly ascdng tringl brkout to fill gap > $52; wkly LT H&S btm brkot w/in LT symm wdge brkot.
2014.06.25 @ 10:48

$BRK.B ($126.9) bullish: daily ST bull pennant w $129.7 flagpole restc & 2x bear divgce.
2014.06.25 @ 10:45

$MOS ($50.8) bullish, watch: daily ascending triangle brkout to fill gap up to $52; wkly LT H&S btm brkout within LT symm wedge brkout.
2014.06.23 @ 14:16

$DISH bearish: daily diamond top (or bull pennant?) w 2x bear divgc; very rich valutn, valued for takeover w 4.75 FwPEG.
#M&A #Fundamentals
2014.06.18 @ 10:47

$AMZN (326.3) bearish, add @ sppt: 15min diamond top brkdwn may complete daily LT H&S R shldr w nkline sppt > $285.
2014.06.17 @ 14:17

$CG bot @ $33.7: 15min bull flag brkout w 2x bull divgce; daily LT C&H w $38 rim & 2x bull divgce; wkly bullish.
2014.06.17 @ 11:40

$BAC sold some @ $15.45 (+32% TR), take gains & reduce to 1% position.
2014.06.17 @ 11:37

$CRTO ($35) watch: 15min H&S top will bnce/brkdwn @ $34.5 nkline sppt; daily ST bull channl after brkouts fm ST H&S btm & LT fallng wedge.
2014.06.17 @ 11:17

$IWV (116) watch: 1min symm wedge 2day; 15min bear flag w 3x LT bull divgc; dly ST risng wdge at restce w/in LT bull chnnl; wkly bull revrsl
2014.06.16 @ 17:39

$SPY (194.3) watch: 1min symm wedge 2day; 15min bear flag; daily risng wedge false brkout after restce-cum-sppt faild 6/12; wkly bull revrsl
2014.06.16 @ 17:28

$KBE (32.9) & $KRE (39.6) bearish: daily H&S tops falling off R shoulders toward nklines.
2014.06.16 @ 10:34

$CREE bot more @ $49.3, dbl to 1% postn: 15min bull flag brkout; dly LT H&S btm @ Rshldr; wkly LT symm wdge.
2014.06.13 @ 15:41

$GNC sold @ $35 (-18% TR): daily ST bear pennant breakdown.
2014.06.13 @ 15:35

$MT ($15.1) watch: daily LT H&S btm nearing $13.3 R shldr sppt w ST 3x bear divgce; wkly LT fallng wedge (since 2008) w trndline restc <$15.
2014.06.12 @ 14:52

$EBAY sold @ $48.8 (-10% TR): thesis broken, swapped for AMZN
2014.06.11 @ 15:11

$AMZN bot @ $334.5: daily LT H&S top brkout (continutn) nearg prior ST H&S’s nkline restce-cum-sppt @ 342.7.
2014.06.11 15:08

$SNE ($16) bullish: daily LT H&S btm @ R shldr sppt w $22.5 nklne restce; wkly LT falling wedge w 2x bull divgce.
2014.06.11 @ 11:47

$SPY ($194.9) bearish ST: 15min H&S top brkdwn < $195.1 nkline sppt w 2x bear divgce; bullish daily.
2014.06.11 @ 10:46

… $IWM (contd): in contrast, $SPY $IWV wkly bull reversals outta bear divgcs & extrmly overbot stochastics
2014.10.06 @ 14:21

$IWM (116.4) watch: daily LT H&S top @ R shoulder restce w 107.3 nkline sppt & ST 2x bull divgce; weekly 4x bear divgce…
2014.06.10 @ 14:17

$AGX ($33.7) bullish: 15min bull pennant w $35 flagpole restce ready for another breakout.
2014.06.10 @ 9:51

Japan Q1 GDP revised sharply higher fm 5.9 to 6.7% (vs 5.5e).
2014.06.08 @ 22:17

RT @StockTwits: The $VIX cratered 8% today and hit its lowest since 2007
2014.06.06 @ 16:47

#ECB decision day guide: consensus expectations for the 5 points the mkt awaits tomorrow (7:45 EST)
2014.06.04 @ 23:49

$PFE ($29.6) bearish, watch: daily ST break flag after breakdown under LT bull channel sppt.
2014.06.04 @ 15:26

… $CRTO contd: daily LT breakout fm falling wedge (5/14).
2014.06.03 @ 16:07

$CRTO bought @ $30, half positn: daily H&S btm bounce off R shldr w $54 nkline restce & 3x bull divgce…
2014.06.03 @ 16:06

$TNX (2.59) bullish: daily consolidatn channel bounce off sppt w 5x bull divgce.
2014.06.03 @ 15:28

$BMA ($33.8) bullish: breakout of daily LT C&H and weekly LT fulcrum bottom w 3x bull divergence.
2014.06.03 @ 9:54

$CLS bot @ $11.75, half position: daily breakout fm ST bull flag & LT C&H w $11.5 restce.
#Trades #QuantScreen #CoreValue
2014.06.03 @ 9:46


Low volume today b4 long wkend; next trading day (Tues 5/27) pivotal for mkt w $SPY $IWV $QQQ bearish setups all near bull reversals.
2014.05.23 @ 13:17

$QQQ ($89.6) bearish: daily H&S top @ R shoulder restce w $84 neckline sppt & 2-3x bear divgce.
2014.05.23 @ 13:15

$SPY ($190.25) bearish: morphd in2 dly, tiltd, complx fulcrum top w nkline restc ~$190.5, LT 3x & ST 2x bear divgc.
2014.05.23 @ 12:46

$IWV ($113.5) bearish: morphed into daily complex fulcrum top w nkline restce <$114, LT 4x & ST 2x bear divgce.
2014.05.23 @ 12:39

$USDJPY (101.8) bullish: daily complx fulcrum btm w 101.8 sppt shld breakout >104 flagpole restce fm former LT bull pennt.
2014.05.23 10:13

$DXJ ($47) bullish: daily LT bull pennt boncng off sppt w trendln restc ~$49.5, flagpole restc @ $54, 3x bull divgc.
2014.05.23 @ 10:07

RT @ReformedBroker: Russell 2000 below 200-day with Vix at 52-week low – has only happened twice in the past 20 years. via @jkrinskypga
2014.05.22 @ 13:52

$IWV sold some @ $113, will reallocate to $CMLP $CREE $CRTO $GLNG $NUAN; allocatn 59/30/11, beta 0.71.
2014.05.22 @ 18:38


Feb. 25 at 4:23 PM
($1594) brilliant LT bull pennant at trendline support; target >$2000. $GLD

Feb. 23 at 8:16 PM
LT bull pennant; expect breakout higher, which jives w the $NG_F arb spread now being fetched by Japanese imports. #Fukushima$USDJPY

Feb. 22 at 12:21 PM
Sold higher #Beta index exposure into strength today to derisk ($IWM & $VTI); will redeploy back into IWM & singlenames when time is right.

Feb. 22 at 12:16 PM
…amazing that $SPY bear divergence (4x daily & weekly) has held up again; 2006 analogue says fade divgce, buy on dip. $SPX $ES_F

Feb. 22 at 12:11 PM
$SPY (+51bps @ $151.19) technical bounce 2day: filling ystday’s gap; 30-min still bearish & will close wk ovrbought, 15-min already there…

Feb. 21 at 1:40 PM
$TNX (1.960) ST bull channel at trendline sppt (>1.95); if it breaksdown, next sppt @ 1.905 before gap dwn to 1.85. $TLH$US_F

Feb. 21 at 1:30 PM
$QQQ ($66.4) succumbing to H&S top after R shoulder resistce ($68.25) held yesterday, neckline $63-61. http://t.co/fm4wsyx7fv

Feb. 20 at 3:48 PM
$SPY ($151.57) resting on trendline sppt of ST bull channel; breakdown is my sell signal to trim excess #Beta. http://t.co/2ENeHNKu$SPX

Feb. 20 at 11:33 AM
$GC_F last chance: at trendline sppt of ST bear channel, slip lower means C&H brkdwn, morph into descndg triangl; still in bull divgce. $GLD

Feb. 13 at 2:46 PM
$WFM ($96.00) binary outcome tmrw after earnings tonight: H&S top near $97 R shoulder; daily indicators just reversed out of bear divergnce.

Feb. 12 at 3:23 PM
Buying small stake in $SNE to hold LT: monthly falling wedge w bull divergce about to breakout.

Feb. 6 at 9:41 PM
re: Long $EEM / Short $EMLC PBOC signals inflation concern as economy rebounds: developed markets export inflation. http://t.co/7k9FpGQx

Feb. 3 at 6:56 PM
$SPY overbought on most ST fractals, expect pullback. Accumulated $F last wk, waiting to open long $NAV & $XOP. #BullMarket#Cyclicals

Jan. 28 at 2:21 PM
$TIP 5y5y inflation breakeven up to 2.865%, highest since May 2004 & August 1997. $FVX$TNXJan. 18 at 3:47 PM…+2.2% on the long $EEM / short $EMB as of swap.Jan. 18 at 3:45 PM
#PairTrade update: Swapping short $EMB for $EMLC; still long $EEM; expect strong $DX_F & US export inflatn to EMs. http://t.co/X7UWFMoO$UUPJan. 10 at 12:55 PM
$SPY ($146.40) evolving intraday: bull revrsl still undrwy, but watch tilted cmpnd fulcrum top in 15-min w nkline >$146.9 & R shldr >$145.7.Jan. 10 at 11:20 AM
$SPY ($146.00) falling fm dbl top ~$146.70; wait for turn higher to confirm bull reversal fm 30-min bear divgce, which 15-min shows underwy.Jan. 8 at 2:01 PM
$SPY ($145.40) watch for complex multiday H&S top in 30-min, rising fm neckline to R shoulder restce ~$145.60; brkdwn wld fill gap to $142.Jan. 7 at 1:07 PM
…buying $IWM ($86.75): LT ascending triangle at 3x restce @ $87 in daily; weekly & monthly indicators bullish. $RUTJan. 7 at 1:01 PM
$SPY (-54bps @ $145.53) about to rally: H&S bottom @ R shoulder sppt in 1-min w bull divgce; 30-min indicators oversold & still bullish.
Dec. 31 at 4:50 PM
#PairTrade: long $EEM / short $EMB again. EMB bear divgce; QE 3+4 will export inflation to #EmergingMarkets again, want to be long equities.Dec. 31 at 1:00 PM
$SPY ($140.60) bull divgce on 30-min; multiday H&S bottom may rally to neckline ~141.40 before testing R shoulder sppt ~140.00. $SPX $ES_FDec. 27 at 10:34 AM
$XLY compound fulcrum top w bear divergence; liquidating last of the position today.Dec. 27 at 9:04 AM
$SHGIDX has broken out above falling wedge, but daily & weekly indicators are overbought and will need rest soon. $FXI $GXCDec. 27 at 9:01 AM
$FXI Cup & Handle approaching rim restce ~$40.5, weak bear divgce starting in daily; will trim position at rim (my biggest allocatn @ 4.5%).Dec. 26 at 3:56 PM
$VXX concurs: rounded top in 30-min w bear divgce as it’s made new intraday highs; 1-min warns to watch for bull flag breakout. $VIXDec. 26 at 3:52 PM
$SPY ($141.75) & $QQQ ($64.50) develpng H&S in 30-min charts w bull divgce in MFIs: May rally fm necklines to R shoulders @ $144.5 & $66.3.Dec. 26 at 2:31 PM
$DBC ($27.69) inverse tilted H&S at R shoulder; daily 3x bull divergence; no clues fm weekly/monthly. $CRB #CommoditiesDec. 20 at 12:06 PM
$SPY 1-min shows symmetrical wedge may be part of 2 day bear pennant; watch 30-min for hints. $SPX $ES_FDec. 18 at 5:52 PM
…expansion in $SPX to $GC_F ratio is sign of organic growth, but are stocks & gold arguing over fiscal cliff outcome? http://t.co/2B5FiC83Dec. 18 at 5:49 PM
$GLD & $SLV crushed since 11/26, moving inverse to $SPY rally despite falling $DXY, QE4 & BOJ easing…Dec. 17 at 10:08 AM
$DBC ($27.56) confirmed bullish w 3x bull divgce and nearing R shoulder support of H&S bottom ~$26. $CRBDec. 16 at 1:22 PM
$USDCNY needs more attn: $CNY +5.6% ytd w wicked rally since Aug; now PBOC removes QFII limits for sovrn wealth & CBs. http://t.co/i2nO1ZrSDec. 10 at 5:51 PM
$QQQ & $SPY watch closely: 30-min bear divgce led to pullback b4 wkend, now bull divgce promptng recovery w H&S bottom @ R shoulder on daily.Dec. 6 at 3:50 PM
$HG_F ($3.644) shying away fm trendline resistce of LT symmetrical wedge; no bias fm indicators. $JJCDec. 5 at 10:52 PM
$GLD have no fear: still tightly tracking 2009 Cup & Handle #analogue on daily & weekly fractals. $GC_F http://t.co/JM2pKpWv
$XLF ($15.73) wait to see if daily bear divgce holds; mutliyr inverted H&S nearng neckline restce; riding trendline sppt of ST rising wedge.Dec. 4 at 1:49 PM
($65.45) & $SPY ($141.15) bear divergence on 30-mins, but they should close higher fm bull divergence on 1-mins.Dec. 2 at 11:44 PM
$SPX will recouple w slow-growth #economy: corporate profit margins @ 70-year highs w wages/GDP @ alltime low. $$ http://t.co/edT1mIsu
Nov. 26 at 1:23 PM
$CPB ($35.48) breaking out of LT symmetrical wedge on monthly (dates back to 1998 alltime high & 1980s pre-ramp).
#Bullish Nov. 17 at 2:07 PM
$SPY ($136.37) rally fm here to H&S top’s R shoulder jives w $DX_Y inverse #correlation. $SPX $ES_F $UUP $USD
http://t.co/gucMvLwM Nov. 16 at 2:19 PM
$SPY ($136.20) getting overbought intraday; as it turns lower, I’m looking for bull divgce to hold (3rd pass), esp on 30-min. $SPX $ES_F Nov. 16 at 9:10 AM
$EURUSD (1.374) H&S bottom has developed in daily, at right shoulder sppt; starting to fit w weekly bull divgce. $FXE https://t.co/l1ovtsk8 Nov. 15 at 10:46 AM
$USDJPY (81.10) H&S bottom breaking out above neckline w strong ST & LT bull divergence. $FXY https://t.co/hBNOnhCi Nov. 14 at 3:41 PM
#FiscalCliff: $SPX -1.1% and entire Treasury complex is down too ($SHY $IEI $IEF $TLH $TLT). $IRX $FVX $TNX $TYX #Correlation breakdownNov. 13 at 3:36 PM
$SPY ($138.15) showing bull divergence on 15 & 30-min; waiting for 1-min confirmation; this could be bottom.Nov. 13 at 11:39 AM
$SPY buy with both hands: either this bounce will turn into 2007 (+8% to R shoulder of H&S top) or June 2011 (+15% to new highs).
#AnalogueNov. 12 at 9:40 PM
$EURUSD (1.2680) LT descending triangle w support ~1.19 on monthly, but bull divergence developing on weekly. Watch for more signals. $FXENov. 12 at 1:33 PM
$HOV ($4.95) Cup & Handle might be shying away fm rim restce back to 1/2011; bullish LT indicators. Chart has amazing symmetry past 30 yrs.Nov. 9 at 11:30 AM
$SPY 30-min shows a broader, multi day H&S forming, which could rally fm this head to neckline restce ~$140.50. https://t.co/CLMFvf4nNov. 9 at 11:25 AM
$SPY ($138.7) H&S bottom developing in 1-min; neckline ~$139, R shoulder sppt ~$138.4. http://t.co/moHkFNuGNov. 8 at 12:12 PM
$SPY ($139.30) bull divergence starting to develop (early 2nd bump) in 15-min. $SPX $ES_FNov. 8 at 11:42 AM
$SPY ($139.20) bull divergence on 1-min; expect a rally, which needs to hold to avert collapse. $SPX $ES_F http://t.co/AAfAes0INov. 7 at 11:56 AM
$SPY resting on LT bull channel support @ $139.5; air pocket below down to 61.8% Fibonacci ~$137.7. $SPX http://t.co/NrPdAbwTNov. 7 at 11:53 AM
$QQQ below LT bull Chanel support, riding ST bear channel sppt & resting on 61.8% Fibonacci ~$64.15. $COMPQ http://t.co/zrKlJnE3Nov. 7 at 10:09 AM
$EURCHF (1.2062) has retraced >61.8% of its post-OMT gains; lookout below $EZU.
#RiskOff http://t.co/1HHmD9tYNov. 6 at 11:09 AM
$SPY #analogue 2q v 4q 2012 (daily chart)- we’ve reached the point at which I’d expect a dip to lower low in H&S bottom http://t.co/jYs8trzdNov. 6 at 9:54 AM
$XLV -50bps, $XLE +1%, $XME +65bps… Market voting for a Romney victory in early session. #Election2012
Oct. 31 at 4:37 PM
$GLD ($166.83) Cup & Handle moving back up to rim after handle held 38.2% Fibonacci support. $GC_F Oct. 31 at 3:33 PM
$DGI (+12% @ $26.20) H&S top on 1-min intraday; lookout below–despite momentum.Oct. 31 at 2:30 PM
$QQQ bought @ $64.85; bull divgce on 1-min & 30-min; daily @ intersectn of LT bull channel & ST bear channl sppts near 61.8% FibonacciOct. 26 at 1:37 PM
$SPY (-40bps @ $140.9) bull divergence on 1-min & 30-min w 30-min showing loose falling wedge; expect rally into close. $SPXOct. 24 at 10:36 AM
$CL_F @ $86.50 below $88 H&S neckline support (7/2012-pres). Symmetrical wedge w trendline support >$81 on weekly/monthly. $USOOct. 22 at 1:37 PM
$IWM 1-min bull divergence & fulcrum bottom. (-43bps @ $81.50)Oct. 19 at 2:03 PM

$OIH selling my remaining stake since it’s coming off R shoulder resistance of H&S top w bear divergence in daily.
Oct. 17 at 12:57 PM
right at $68.25 H&S neckline support cum resistce. A break higher means Fibonacci 38.2% retracement was the extent of this correctn.Oct. 16 at 11:55 AM
bull pennant at trendline resistance–part of a larger Cup & Handle that’s near breakout higher in the middle of earnings season.Oct. 11 at 12:27 PM
$WY bull pennant.Oct. 11 at 12:11 PM
$QQQ has already retraced ~38.2% (Fibonacci support ~$62.60) of its rally off June lows. $COMPQOct. 10 at 4:12 PM
$HYG H&S top at end of LT bear divergence.Oct. 10 at 4:10 PM
$US_F ST bull divergence on daily chart; one more gasp higher, b/c weekly shows bear divergence. $TLT $TYXOct. 10 at 10:39 AM
$IWM complex H&S bottom in 1-min w bull divergence. Expect ST breakout >$82.80 neckline to ~$82.90.Oct. 9 at 10:44 AM
$AVL far finger? 10:42 EST- 5200 shs @ $2.27 (+24% fm $1.83); move already retraced.Oct. 8 at 10:46 PM
Tough wk: World Bank issued China 2012 growth warning (7.7% v 8.2 prior), now IMF lowers its 2012/13 global growth forecast. #Contrarian $$Oct. 8 at 2:25 PM
$GC_F did hit Cup & Handle rim restce ~$1790 w bear divergence; now @ $1776, expect handle to dip as low as Fibonacci sppt ~$1694. $GLDOct. 8 at 2:18 PM
$GC_F did hit Cup & Handle rim restce ~$1790; now @ $1776, expect handle to dip as low as Fibonacci sppt ~$1690. $GLD https://t.co/Zi7uIldyOct. 2 at 5:42 PM
$COMPQ accentuates the H&S top that’s forming in other indices like $SPX. $QQQ $NQ_F http://t.co/hAciwtP1

Sep. 27 at 3:38 PM
$SPY @ $144.80 showing bear divergence in 1-min into the close. $SPX Sep. 27 at 1:30 PM
I’m sitting here laboring over whether or not to sell $XME, and $CLF messes w my head: looks like a H&S bottom w bull divergence.Sep. 27 at 8:53 AM
In coordination w market-wide 2q12 analogues, $TNX daily fractal is uncannily self-similar to 4/13/12 (as is $SPX). http://t.co/tFrqxcMeSep. 21 at 5:15 PM
$TRAN symmetrical wedge breaking dwn. After weak $FDX & $NSC guidance and soft Railtraffic data, I’m worried about inventories/confidence.Sep. 21 at 12:26 PM

$GC_F Cup & Handle rim resistce near ~$1792. @JessesCafe is right though, this pattern usually occurs in uptrend. $GLDhttp://t.co/VIyNtVLL


$SPY bull flag on 30-min @ $146.50. Time to put-up or shut-up. $SPX


$SPY now worked into long symmetrical wedge on 1-min. Due to length, breakouts fm these patterns are generally mild. $SPX


$SPY @ $146.9, bull flag on 30-min. $SPX


$SPY bear divergence 30-min, not good going into FOMC QE3 announcement this afternoon. $SPX


…Romney cuts spending & taxes, Obama raises them: both candidates warrant the same $DJIA reaction, same net economic effect.


What’s w convent’l wisdom that #RomneyRyan2012 win good for $DJIA? They wanna bust up Fed! (Bad ST, good LT if fiscal side is well managed.)


$HG_F symmetrical wedge since 6/2010 low; @ $3.5880, near breakout >$3.60 trendline resistance. $JJC


$SPY +2% to $143.70, 30-min bear divergce suggests intraday pullback m these highs.


$SPY intraday dbl top @ $141.47 w bear divrgce on 1-min. 30-min H&S top still developing w smaller descending triangle. All looks bearish.


$SPY -30bps trying to rally off lows to hold neckline support on a closing basis. Despite all the red, $IWM is +60bps! $RUT#SmallCap


$SPY breaking below neckline support of H&S top. $SPXhttp://t.co/pTKoV6L3


$USDJPY confirmed breakout fm falling wedge–a bottom to multiyear slide after H&S broke neckline 10/2008. Short $FXY


Hope $SPY holds 1-min symmetrical wedge’s trendline sppt, cuz below that it’ll test neckline of H&S top. https://t.co/yqI2eMmP


$SPY +$0.83 (+0.60%) heading lower into close. At trendline restce of symmetrical wedge on 1-min.


$SPY will have to compel Bernanke to implement QE3, call his bluff. Jawboning is credibility trap; he can only bluff mkt once in his career.


What’d you expect? Bernanke wouldn’t nix QE3 unless $CL_F >$120 or Core CPI/5y5y inflation rally.


Bernanke said nothing new or material @ Jackson Hole today: he reaffirmed QE3 threat, nothing more. $$ http://t.co/mhiuwsat


Noticing a lot of H&S tops on #Value charts (highlighted in 30-min) charts ($IWW$IWD$VIG), but #Growth trending higher ($IWZ$IWF).


$CVS at right shoulder of H&S top, neckline ~$47.6


$SPY @ $140.60, intraday bear pennant.


Watch $HYG breakout >$92 resistance of ascending triangle. Vertex of shorter-term rising wedge @ same $92 target + bear divgce will prevail.


Watch $HYG breakout >$92 resistance of ascending triangle, but I do note vertex of shorter-term rising wedge at same $92 target.


$TNX near 1.85 restce of falling wedge w bull divergce in all fractals. Sppt <1.40 if breakout fails. $IEFhttp://t.co/FaeP3k8j


$ADM LT H&S w $24 neckline (11/2009 left sholder). Trading 0.93 P/B, getting crushed due to #Drought. Watching to pickup deep value evently.


$SPY needs to hold $140.80 trendline resistance cum support to confirm breakout. https://t.co/UyHKjobn


$XME nearing trendline restce of LT falling wedge (4/2011 top & 7/2010 btm). LT fractals’ indicators sugest breakout after pullback on daily


$XME nearing trendline resistance of LT falling wedge (4/2011 top & 7/2010 btm). Indicators on all fractals suggest breakout is near.


$VIX breaking-down below support of giant bear descending triangle. Don’t buy just because it’s cheap (not yet). $VXXhttp://t.co/BZCKQVaV


$GOOG rising wedge (since 1/2010 top) w trendline resistance <$670. http://t.co/1HHa5w7w


$SPY 30-min shows ST symmet wedge (bull pennant?) at resistance. Buy breakout higher; downside target sppt ~$140.25. http://t.co/ozFPaxRD


$BAC @ trendline restce of LT bear pennant on wkly chart, but all fractals’ indicators r bullish. Watch for brkout highr or fall to sppt >$6


$SHLD H&S bottom w bullish LT indicators. Attractive #RealEstate play w nice brand assets too. http://t.co/gxZ1qh2b


$EZU failed breakout >$29 falling wedge trendline restce; targets sppt <$25, even tho all fractals’ indicators bullish. http://t.co/PbOt9CXl


Sold $YELP @ $26 (+18%) after failed to breach 4x resistance. https://t.co/n3Oy8OZs


$SPX -32bps into close today; 30-min shows $SPY met trendline resistance of bull channel; rising wedge also developing. http://t.co/sWn8lvLD


$SPY working on inverted H&S bottom on intraday 1-min. Indicators show bull divergence too.


Buying $YELP inverted H&S after killer 2q12 earnings. http://t.co/MMyrLQfn


$SPX has departed fm its 2011 analogue: indicators & chart pattern have diverged. Still trading in neat technical coordination. $ES_F


$ES_F bouncing off trendline support ~1356 of that rising wedge. $SPXhttp://t.co/CIZujPNC


$USDCAD @ 1.002 almost back to parity. Inverted H&S should lead it <1.00 to rt shoulder support ~0.99. $FXC


5y5y fw inflation has bounced >2.0% in QE3 expectation, but US July PMI now at Fed intervention levels. #GreatSeeSaw $$ http://t.co/WLQZ1t2J


$SPY rallied up to $138.65 fm intraday H&S, now retracing into close. 30-min bull flag will find $138 trendline sppt. https://t.co/hVkO88VY


$SPY @ $128.24 1-min intraday H&S bottom, bull divergence in indicators.


$SPY volume 62% avg today. It’s all about Fed & ECB. This feels like despondency, esp after nervous reaction to Draghi. http://t.co/oBG62PXd


Buying a little $EWJ. After it crashed below ST H&S neckline (7/4 head), bounced off double bottom. Now at 50DMA w indicators bullish.


Prominent theme in late-90s was reduction of #Treasury supply as US reduced deficit. There’s a healthy liquidity premium in $US_F$TLT$TYX


Anyone noticed @CNBC getting tougher on guests? Esp on #FiscalCliff, they’re real cynical. Good to see, tho I bet it’s to help ratings. $$


$CP bought @ $79.90 rt shoulder sppt of inverted H&S on 1-min, now intraday bull flag. Confirmed daily bull flag w 79.8 restce.


$XRX buying more: indicators in all fractals bearish w wkly LT H&S (back to 2001) developg, but daily @ trendline support of falling wedge


$ES_F ~1326 50DMA support, under trendline support of rising wedge with death cross neigh. $SPX


$SPX wkly bear divrgce + mntly bear chanl warnd of YE12 collapse http://t.co/0VOPgWVa but mntly morphing into bull flag http://t.co/s94j5IoJ


$DELRF big resurgence has gone largely unnoticed. Is Greece quietly printing Drachma? $GREKhttp://t.co/xV5PrQPD


Bought some $IWM today @ $79.90 to capitalize on this lull of underperformance before takeoff, per 2011 analogue. #SmallCap


Buying $IWF per 2011 analogue: LCG outperformed $SPX henceforth in 2011 fm this’d support bounce. #Growth


And the #Municipal witchhunt begins in California after the Stockton bankruptcy. $MUB$CMF


So far, noticing that co’s reporting 2q12 EPS misses are getting absolutely crushed, while beats are faded. $$


$XLP in bear rising wedge since 2011 base, but ST bull flag is developing–last gasp for staples but start to bull cycle sector rotation.


Bearish chart constructions from $XLB$XLE$XLI, but I’m buying $OIH H&S bottom.


Bearish chart constructions from $XLB$XLE$XLI. Buying in the $XLP space, likely the index (not singlenames). Could be start of bull cycle.


$BP bear flag within giant LT symmetrical wedge. Looking to start buying <$38. PB 1.06/FPE 6.54, how cheap can a co w 25% ROE/12% ROI get?


Added to $CSX @ $22.46. Bullish indicators, LT & ST symmetrical wedges on daily chart w 1-min bull falling wedge about to breakout >$22.50.


Bond market is king (smart money) b/c it’s composed of longer-term investors: spreads are too wide, CUSIPs too illiquid to flip. $$


Analysts’ $SPX YE price targets are so ridiculous. They use estimated EPS then an estimated multiple (P/E). So many layers of assumption.


Bought $FB @ $32.29. Bull Cup & Handle w $33 rim. https://t.co/aLPsZCnu


$SPX rally defied most inter-asset correlations. An effect fm OT2 (see $HYG trading @ $91, $VIX ~17)? US still not immune fm global slowdown


$SPX defied inter-asset correlns in rally since 6/4, maybe some effect fm OT2 (see $HYG trading at $91). Still not immune fm global slowdown


Closed long $EWL/short $EZU pair trade +8.98% net since 2/22. https://t.co/hDJ2SVlJ

$USG breakout above Cup & Handle ~$19.40 rim.


Jun. 29 at 1:14 PM
$A about to breakout >$39 resistance per 1-min bull ascending triangle. https://t.co/yYAE70kZJun. 29 at 1:10 PM
next LT resistance ~1500 fm trendline of bear rising wedge (draw fm 2011 high & low). $SPY $VTI

Jun. 29 at 11:17 AM
& $A 1-min intraday bull pennants. Adding to positions.Jun. 29 at 9:30 AM
bull Cup & Handle.Jun. 29 at 9:21 AM
bull falling wedge. Bounced off trendline support ~$24.50, expect rally over resistance ~$33.Jun. 27 at 8:21 AM
Economic data has been up y/y, but ppl forget it’s off low base, since the economy, $SPX were wavering after QE2 this time last year.Jun. 22 at 2:35 PM
bouncing off LT trendline support dating back to 9/2009. Kinda wanna buy, but no evidence it’ll hold. Daily & wkly indicators bullish.Jun. 22 at 10:26 AM
sold most @ $126.14; bull pennant, holding what’s left in case of a breakout.Jun. 21 at 4:01 PM
$SPX -2.5% to 1320 after macro data, bank downgrades, Fed dashed hopes. This is now “Panic” in Cycle of Psychology. http://t.co/gNYrQHyoJun. 21 at 3:38 PM
Moody’s downgrade coming tonight; Technicals: in ST bear flag, part of LT inverted Cup & Handle w $12-12.3 rim support back to 2008 low.Jun. 21 at 3:03 PM
still in bear channel, but I’m focused on bull falling wedge drawn fm tops in 2011 to 2012. Buy @ 1540 1st sppt & 1530 trendline. $GLDJun. 21 at 9:46 AM
$SLV @ $25.75 nearing $26 support of bear descending triangle, still stuck in shorter-term bear channel since 2011 top. http://t.co/IHJnWNMDJun. 21 at 8:51 AM
$YHOO confirming a new bull channel, breaking out of ST symmetrical triangle within larger bear channel that began at 10/2011 highs.Jun. 20 at 3:56 PM
: long $MRU.CA @ $51.40, short $WFM @ $96.15. Better value in MRU, WFM has a big task to bring EPS fm TTM 2.20 to 2.83.Jun. 19 at 5:09 PM
expects something more than OT2 (i.e QE3 lite) fm #FOMC tmrw. $EZU expects fiscal consolidation talk. https://t.co/rlcccWtcJun. 18 at 11:33 PM
Can entitlement/public #pension underfunding disasters help Revenue Bonds outperform GOs? #Munis $MUB http://t.co/q0OILTG2Jun. 18 at 11:05 PM
Economist quote fm my convos today… Me: “Why would Fed plain QE3/OT2 again?” He: “Cuz mkt already priced it in, can’t provoke letdown.” $$
$FVX $TNX $TYX reaction to 9/21/11 #OperationTwist says don’t own #Treasuries after #FOMC meeting Wed.
For credit: $HYG>$BKLN>$LQD of courseJun. 18 at 5:43 PM
NYSE volume ~700mm today, $SPY 130m; both extremely low. But $VIX selloff -13.22%. Tail wagging dog, while ppl wait for mtngs later this wk.Jun. 18 at 4:49 PM
bull falling wedge brokeout to close above trendline resistance today. May buy some to fill gap >$14.Jun. 18 at 4:26 PM
$SPX seems to believe in #OperationTwist renewal; $EZU now hoping for fiscal consolidation talk fm ECB mtng 6/21 & Euro finmins 6/21-22.Jun. 18 at 4:19 PM
2011 #Analogue seems relevant. 2012 is showing a classical pattern like all those H&S bottoms before it, just condensed.Jun. 18 at 4:15 PM
$IYT 1q rally flattened by energy costs $CL_F & $KOL. We’ll see what #FOMC say on Wed, but now is time to buy trannies.
Jun. 18 at 4:07 PM
More on $IYT: has outperformed $SPX like most early recoveries. Economists claim 1q12 warm winter pulled fw 2q demand, say 3q will normalize.

Jun. 18 at 3:40 PM
& $XLP outperformce, check. Now, $IYT pops before rotation to $XLK. Studying whether or not we’ve reached 12/7/11 in 2011 #Analogue.

Jun. 18 at 9:01 AM
Are bonds indicating proximate #QE3 in their recent divergence w equities? Hilsenrath, $GS & SocGen all expect it this week. $IEF $LQD $CIU

  • @CNBC: coordinated CB effort to provide liquidity to Euro banks; $SPX spikes +100pts. Fed already offers unlmtd USD swaps! Fade the rally!
    Jun. 14 at 3:28 PM
  • $ES_F base case: after hitting trendline resistance ~1315, resume slide to 1254 support, then breakout higher fm this falling wedge. $SPX
    Jun. 6 at 1:28 PM
  • $ES_F best case: rally to inverted H&S neckline at 1333 then down to 1290 rt shoulder support before breakout higher. $SPX
    Jun. 6 at 1:24 PM
  • “V” shaped bottom (or top) is rare, as it plays into bear flag. Classical patterns are H&S, rounded, or double bottoms. $SPY $DIA
    Jun. 6 at 1:07 PM
  • Top 1% of earners pay 40% of the taxes they say. Well, they make ~25% of income, so yes, they should pay less, but not much <30%. $$
    Jun. 5 at 4:47 PM
  • $MBLX +29% on short squeeze. Not sure about these numbers, but: 21.97% short interest and 40 days to cover!
    Jun. 5 at 3:07 PM
  • Great #quote from John Browne CNBC interview: “Epic battle in Europe between Anglo Keynesians and Germanic Austrians.” $$
    Jun. 1 at 4:49 PM
  • …announce more QE on long end (only deploy if necessary), and fiscal intervention (to aid structural issues/innovation). $TYX $TLT
    Jun. 1 at 2:36 PM


  • $GLD in bear channel within longer term bull flag. Most likely looking for trendline support $141.50-143 before breakout rally. $GC_F
    May. 30 at 11:05 AM
  • $FXE gap dwn 124.65 to 54 outta 1-min bear flag. Now oversold on all intraday fractals/daily/wkly/monthly. Wkend short covering now? $EURUSD
    May. 25 at 10:50 AM
  • European Stability Mechanism (ESM) also needs a bank charter for direct access to ECB liquidity in handling bank recapitalizations. $$
    May. 23 at 9:17 AM
  • EIB is leveraged 150x, 3.8% Greek exposure, 5.3% Portugal, 15% Spain. This is still most likely conduit for emergency non-sterilized #QE. $$
    May. 23 at 9:16 AM
  • $EURUSD has to find support @ 1.25 inverted H&S, otherwise it’s spellbound by longer-term bear channel since 7/2008 top w ~1.05 sppt. $FXE
    May. 22 at 5:36 PM
  • $GES bought into 1q12 earnings this afternoon. Warm winter def padded EPS, plus it will rally off trendline support of LT bull falling wedge.
    May. 22 at 5:02 PM
  • $CJES bear descending triangle since IPO. Will test bear trendline resistance ~$19 (<200DMA $19.50), then should return to suppt ~$16.50.
    May. 22 at 3:58 PM
  • D-day (week): June 18… Greek re-election, Fed FOMC meeting, ECB meeting, Eurozone finance ministers’ meeting. $$
    May. 18 at 11:03 AM
  • $COP Fundamental: $PSX spinoff good; $48.7/sh proven reserves provides support, esp w divs & buybacks returning 15% mkt cap to shareholders.
    May. 14 at 5:43 PM
  • $COP Technical: dipped <LT bull support trendline, decisive break dwn thru symmetrical triangle top. Weak determinism in monthly fractal.
    May. 14 at 5:38 PM





  • $MBLX halted, $ADM terms Telles JV, MBLX annces restructuring. If this is net positive for MBLX, the SEC will bag someone for frontrunning. Jan. 12 at 4:19 PM
  • Don’t like weak breakdown in $TLT daily MFI, shows bear divergence and a lack of buyers to sppt these levels. This is its last shot at top. Jan. 12 at 9:06 AM
  • How did this get misconstrued? German 4q11 GDP was -0.25% q/q, although FY11 est 3.0%. That’s the European stalwart. Ew, bodes poorly. $EWG Jan. 11 at 7:56 PM
  • Baltic Dry Index collapsing again, -36% since December shelf. Co’s like $GNK price at spot $BDI w big correlatn, expect resurgant short int. Jan. 11 at 7:46 PM
  • Emphasis on $GLD one month window, cuz falling wedge resistance will hold 163ish. Technical indicators still bearish incl MFI neg trend. Jan. 10 at 9:50 AM


  • Good risk-adjusted return oppt’y in $SHY right now if u look at decoupling fm $TU_F: correlation fm .99 to .36 since September Dec. 30 at 9:41 AM
  • $ITALY halving rates in 6-mo, 2-yr auctions today not surprising w risk-free carry-trade created by 3-yr LTRO. Tmrw’s 3-yr auction is legit Dec. 28 at 10:33 AM
  • $WHR -8.4% today on news of $SHLD closing 3% of its stores. SHDL was 8% of WHR 2010 sales (per 10K), so .08x.03 means 0.25% loss to WHR revs Dec. 27 at 3:30 PM
  • $VXX again decoupling fm correlation: up 2.5pc v $SPY up 0.9pc v $VIX cash index down 1.89pc. VIX futures all higher but contango flattened. Dec. 23 at 4:27 PM
  • $FCX to rally up to its trendline resistce at 40 in a wedge pattern. All fractals are bullish so I expect a breakout. Dec. 22 at 2:18 PM
  • $TIP bought at 117.25. Strong fundmtl argument w negative real yields. Also a cup n handle to catapult above 120. Dec. 21 at 2:22 PM
  • FYI floating rate bank loans r junk credit Look at LIBOR. Those guys r feeling some sharp pain, cost of borrowing up, growth dwn. $HYG$FLOT Dec. 13 at 9:31 AM
  • $HYG at 87.23 hides the junk bond carbage cuz it’s an index of lrg, liquid issues, not the little levered ones undergoing shakeouts. Dec. 12 at 4:42 PM
  • $SPY has only retraced 75pc of ystrday’s loss. Intraday VWAP only retraced 62pc. Weird that the mkt doesnt expect ECB to flinch. Dec. 9 at 6:51 PM
  • Has anyone put this together yet? “PIGS FUKING US,” a good pnemonic device to remember the sequence of dominoes to fall fm $EUROPE. Dec. 2 at 7:46 PM
  • USD secular bull still in the works, but until Euroreckoning, a ST risk rally and $DX_F pullback in store. Nov. 30 at 10:46 PM
  • Also worth noting that USD swap lines are an effective extension of QE/monetary policy, an end-around Congress to batter $DX_F, help exports. Nov. 30 at 10:30 PM
  • Entirely possible that global central banks decided to reduce rate on USD swaps as preemptive measure: might $GREECE be returning to drachma? Nov. 30 at 6:08 PM


  • With memories of the past few years’ Thanksgivings, Dubai World, LTCM, i hope I don’t have to follow the news this $Thanksgiving. Nov. 22 at 11:49 PM
  • This is what i feared: Shut down NYSE, Oakland ports, #OWS #Occupy discredits self w irratnl intiatives that stray fm its altruistic mission. Nov. 21 at 10:46 AM


  • 3-month Eurodollar futures take out support today in a loudly silent crash. I have last print 99.36 $ED_F. Nov. 16 at 7:15 PM
  • Wtf is US Govt doing offering student loans toward for-profit education? It’s a subsidy to a private business. Nov. 16 at 9:04 AM
  • $MBB sold at 107.65, TR up 1.7pc. I dont care what Gundlach says about MBS, MBB looks technicly bearish and I’d rather cash to buy SPX dip. Nov. 15 at 1:30 PM


  • Since June, the Street’s analysts squawkd that Euro dissolution won’t happen. Why no conviction buys on BTP-Bund converg’ce? $EURUSD $FXE Nov. 11 at 3:01 PM
  • Bought $WHR 54.13. Great LT play at a deep discount. Even if BEFIX tax benefits disappear, FPE discount is susbstantial. $EWZ Nov. 11 at 2:28 PM
  • Buying $GNK. Trading 25pc NAV, 1.15x cash w $BDI rebounding. A value trade, not an investment. The investment is $FDX, which I’m poaching. Nov. 11 at 9:28 AM
  • $EURUSD misunderstood: no net monetization yet, so EUR strength is prescient, esp considrng my Black Wed analogue–only conceivbl outcome. Nov. 9 at 9:12 AM
  • Chinese inflation will unfold like US, where housing deflation trumped all. $$GERMANY doesn’t have that drag, were the EFSF to lever. $EUR Nov. 8 at 8:53 AM
  • Italian 10-year bond yield 6.66pc, would be crazy if this marked the top, after $SPX bottomed at 666 in March 09. $ITALY Nov. 7 at 9:53 PM


  • $VECO popped, sold at 29.00, TR up 7.80pc. I think the company decided to buyback some shares here. Nov. 4 at 10:50 AM
  • Added to $UUP at 21.69 limit. Raises my basis, but I needed a bigger position and this entry was technically sound. Nov. 2 at 2:15 PM
  • $X would be a concern here, not far fm a roundtrip back to 2009 lows w/o a profitable yr since 2008. Luckily, no LT debt maty til 2013 300mm Nov. 1 at 1:16 PM


  • $HG_F still far fm retracing losses, lagging $SPX by a lot. HG 20pc fm hi, 5.4pc fm 3q11 sppt. SPX only 6.7pc fm hi, past sppt. Oct. 28 at 3:39 PM



  • $VECO bought at 27.00. Trading 1.75x cash, sh repurchase in 30-40 range a stabilizer. ST buy signal fm technicals. Oct. 10 at 1:26 PM


  • $DF will head fm 9.45-7.13, where I’d buy in coming mnths. $DN_F fm 17.9-18.50 in coming weeks could open door. I own DF 7s of 16 bonds btw. Oct. 7 at 9:55 AM
  • $CSCO sold at 16.20, up 4.30pc. I’ll revisit stock soon due to value and LT bullish fractal, but I don’t trust footing of this mkt rally. Oct. 5 at 10:52 AM
  • I’m not convinced a Euro bailout will happen and US policy on momentary hold. So, it’s not worth owning PMs w/o any ST catalyst. $GC_F $SI_F Oct. 3 at 5:23 PM


  • Bought $VXX at 50.00. A valuble lesson in patnce, I waited yestrdy for drop on today’s open, missed exectn, waited for limit just b4 close. Sep. 29 at 4:03 PM


  • $VXX sold at 50.60, up 17.52pc. My equity positions are sufficntly trimmed and I don’t want to enter wkend holding Vol. $VIX resistce here? Sep. 23 at 3:05 PM
  • RT: As Solyndra execs hit stand in DC, can’t help but buy $FSLR at 62.50. BV 42.66, not a technical or tactical move, just pure value. Sep. 23 at 10:18 AM
  • $MBB added to position at 108.80. CUSIP level makes me think ETF is lagging underlying rally since FOMC. Maybe an issue w TBA pricing? Sep. 22 at 10:40 AM
  • I thought Fed said it was buying long-end of the curve? I didn’t read anything about $GS 50yr maty. Must’ve been an oversight. Sep. 21 at 10:36 PM
  • Headed into Fed anncmnt, clinging to $VXX, but ST fractals look poor. I’m encouraged by $VIX bouncing fm btm of trading range w 50dma sppt. Sep. 21 at 10:33 AM


  • Looking at history of $TIP performance during QEs, I’ll likely sell now before FOMC meeting. Plus, technicals are weak, esp ST. Sep. 16 at 11:34 AM
  • Really caught flat-footed by the magnitude of today’s rally. Sold $TLT up 2.02pc, $VXX up 5.05pc (my limit painted the tape w the latter). Sep. 14 at 5:23 PM
  • Epic opportunity to buy $HG_F in the coming wk. After a relatvly shallow pullback, Copper has entered the btm of trading range before ES_F. Sep. 14 at 9:28 AM
  • $SLV sold at 40 (up 2pc). I see a pullback per the daily fractal and I’m happy to step aside then repurchase at bottom of trading range. Sep. 13 at 1:11 PM
  • $DX_F monthly fractals fm 1992 v 2011 are exact analogue. 1992 was Black Wednesday… ERM I dissolution… Holy crap. Sep. 12 at 3:43 PM
  • $ES_F at 1174 looks to hit 1180 on 1-min chart, but 30-min says that’s the top of range. Time to put up or shut up. Sep. 14 at 8:28 AM


  • $ES_F at 1166. Per 30-min, may hit 1170 1st restce overnight, but that’s the top. I’m long $VXX and still short $XLF. looking for more… Sep. 6 at 6:16 PM
  • $BDI worth noting fm 1306 on 8/16 to 1750 today. To put in context, we’re back at 12/2010 levels, but the chart has gone parabolic. Sep. 6 at 5:35 PM


  • Question: if the Fed demands contingency plan from $BAC, can we not demand the same fm Fed or is this a Frost/Nixon kinda thing?Sep. 3 at 7:43 PM
  • $DCTH getting lit up. Down 6.25pc after being up 12pc premarket on news of positive test data (Phase II). Aug. 25 at 3:16 PM
  • $LMT Fundmtly, the street scaling bk EPS, but margins historically enormous and short interest spike waning? Aug. 24 at 11:40 AM


  • $CRMT avging 10pc rev growth yoy, credit losses 20pc of sales, but profit and int income still 14pc per unit. No conviction, just skeptical. Aug. 19 at 3:07 PM
  • $CRMT can’t figure it out. Subprime used car sales and financing. They brag about their biz model, but how has stock been so strong?Aug. 19 at 2:39 PM
  • Jim Cramer on CNBC right now. He’s so scarred from Lehman/2008, psychologically damaged, I almost feel bad. Aug. 18 at 9:57 AM
  • $SPXresistance was exactly 1205. That’s shy of my 1215 target, but the “ephemeral rally” is over. Getting aggressive on shorts here…Aug. 18 at 8:31 AM


  • After this mkt shakes out, I’m going to accumulate $FSLRon the cheap btwn 88-100. Just one of many names on my shopping list. Aug. 12 at 4:19 PM
  • According to $ES_F, $SPX will pass 1st restce at 1180 today. I can see the ST rally ending at 1215 restce, almost 3pc north of here.
  • Is $JAPAN stalling under the weight of a robust JPY? If no more BOJ Yentervention, I’ll sell $EWJ, which beat SPY by 6pc since I bought. Aug. 12 at 8:42 AM
  • Here comes the “Ephemeral Rally.” I’m covering nmy remaining charts today prolly. When rally comes, I’ll sell my longs into it. $SPX at 1147. Aug. 10 at 2:07 PM
  • Somehow, mkts keep getting nuttier, whipsaw day. Covered $HYG up 0.71pc and $XLF up 6.58pc this afternoon. Aug. 9 at 4:09 PM
  • After “ephemeral” bounce off 1st sppt 1150, $SPX falls to 2nd sppt 1118, then bounces again. That’s last, critical snag before air pocket. Aug. 8 at 3:10 PM


  • Have to settle up. Shorted $IWM at 72.00 for beta hedge and $XLF at 13.50 since its below suppt this morning. Have to protect this house. Aug. 5 at 10:37 PM
  • $SPX intraday bounced off support down below 1180, now trying to hold that crucial 1200 threshold, which was the QE2 launchpad. Aug. 5 at 2:57 PM
  • Bought $SLV at 40.80. Couldn’t justify adding to my small GLD stake here, so overbought by technicals. Aug. 4 at 10:40 AM
  • Evaluating a short $QQQ bc of the higher beta and it’s got further to fall on it’s trading range v SPY/DIA. Aug. 2 at 9:16 AM


  • $HTS getting crushed again today. Bounced off 3x bottom at 27.12, I’m waiting for it to turn off bottom of trading range. Jul. 28 at 11:45 AM
  • $RSH up 20-25pc intraday. I got executed at 16.10 on limit I entered this morning. Total net gain 2.78pc since April. Jul. 26 at 2:17 PM
  • $BP LSE shs dwn 2.56pc on bad EPS today. I want GBP exposure and I’ll be opening BP position in coming weeks. Jul. 26 at 1:13 PM


  • Not liking morning action in $UNG, at top of daily fractal’s trading range. Worth heeding to bullish weekly? Jul. 20 at 10:02 AM
  • $SPY shorted at 131.10. I need to hedge equity exposure, worry about slide below 130.5 in head n shouldrs. Daily n wkly show suppt at 126.18. Jul. 18 at 10:21 AM


  • Was able to buy $MBB at 106.93 just after open. I have some cash to put to work beyond US equities in the short term. Jul. 14 at 9:40 AM
  • Doing some reading on $MOTR and $ENTR tonight. Very interesting stories w overhang of lg short interests. Follow closely for 8/9 MOTR EPS. Jul. 13 at 11:45 PM



  • Closed: FSLR (+12.40%), NUE (+6.83%), (GLD Sept 141 Call) (-15.15%), ACI (+0.25%), LMT (+12.16)
  • Opened: ADM, VXZ, CUQ-T


  • Closed: Treasury pair trade (+0.76%), EXC (-7.48%), TDW (+21.10%),
  • Opened: ACI, DCTH


  • Closed: CMCSA (+19.11%), MSFT (+8.82%), MDT (+7.64%), NSC (+7.19%), PFE (+5.94%)
  • Opened: EXC, FRX, RTN, TSN, WHR


  • Closed: nil
  • Open: PHG


  • No changes


  • No changes



  • Closed: EEM/(EMB) (+4.83%)
  • Opened: PFE

2010.12.24 (Christmas Eve)

  • Closed: IWF/(IWD) (+0.35%),
  • Opened: HYG/(LQD)
  • Closed: AIN (+16.23%), YHOO (+15.18%)
  • Opened: FSLR, MDT, NUE, NSC, (ACOR)


*Please visit Disclosures



Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s